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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Nov 30-Dec 6

All timings subject to change.

Monday 30 November:

  • UK-EU: Talks over a free trade agreement continue in London. There is no set agenda for the talks as they enter what is being billed as the crucial final days to reach a deal before it is accepted there will be too little time to translate and ratify an agreement before year end. Without a set timetable expect the release of information on any progress around a deal, or lack thereof, to be sporadic in nature. As has been the case for UK-EU talks since the 2016 referendum, there is the prospect of deadlines being pushed back and talks continuing into early next week.
  • OPEC+:Officials from OPEC member states as well as select partners (most prominently Russia) in the OPEC+ format begin two days of talks via videolink. Main decision is whether OPEC+ countries extend the current reductions in oil production agreed to earlier in the year or begin to increase output from January 2021. Unofficial OPEC leader Saudi Arabia believed to favour an extension to the 7.7mn/bbd cut into the first few months of 2021, but preliminary talks on 29 Nov between Saudi and Russian ministers not believed to have reached a deal.
  • United States:Senate returns to session. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has not yet set out an agenda of votes beyond the confirmation of some Trump appointees. McConnell has halted in-person lunch meetings of Senate Republicans due to the COVID-19 pandemic. General Services Administration Deputy Administrator Allison Brigati due to deliver 30 min briefing to House committee chairs and ranking Republicans regarding the presidential transition. The brevity of the briefing has been criticised by some House Democrats as being insufficient
  • SCO:19th meeting of the Council of Heads of Governments of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). India acting as host for the virtual meeting, but PM Narendra Modi will not be in attendance, with Vice President M Venkaiah Naidu chairing the meeting. SCO seen by China as a key forum to develop its Belt and Road infrastructure projects in south and central Asia.
Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Nov 30-Dec 6.pdf

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