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MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Election Preview

No Clear Leader In Historically Close Presidential Race
USEM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskCommoditiesPolitical Risk BulletPower BulletsGlobalStoryEnergy BulletsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

Executive Summary:

  • On November 5 the United States will hold elections for the country’s presidency, 34 seats in the United States Senate, the entirety of the House of Representatives, and a plethora of state and local-level offices. The presidential race between Democratic Party nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican Party nominee, Donald Trump, is poised on a knife edge after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July.
  • Since the switch at the top of the Democrat ticket, the race has seen some of the tightest polling in modern US history with the seven states most likely to determine the Electoral College result – the so-called ‘swing states’ - consistently polling within the margin of error.
  • As polling falls within the margin of error in the key swing states, a polling miss could result in a comfortable win for either candidate, depending on the direction of the miss.
  • Republicans running on a map that offers few pickup opportunities for Democrats are favoured to win the Senate. The House of Representatives is a 'toss-up' that may fall to the party that wins the White House.
  • Inside: MNI's scenario analysis for the presidential race, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. A rundown of the electoral system, a guide to policies proposed by Harris and Trump, detailed analysis on the cases for both candidates, election wildcards, and a chartpack of polling.  

Full PDF article: US Election Preview 

 

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Executive Summary:

  • On November 5 the United States will hold elections for the country’s presidency, 34 seats in the United States Senate, the entirety of the House of Representatives, and a plethora of state and local-level offices. The presidential race between Democratic Party nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Republican Party nominee, Donald Trump, is poised on a knife edge after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July.
  • Since the switch at the top of the Democrat ticket, the race has seen some of the tightest polling in modern US history with the seven states most likely to determine the Electoral College result – the so-called ‘swing states’ - consistently polling within the margin of error.
  • As polling falls within the margin of error in the key swing states, a polling miss could result in a comfortable win for either candidate, depending on the direction of the miss.
  • Republicans running on a map that offers few pickup opportunities for Democrats are favoured to win the Senate. The House of Representatives is a 'toss-up' that may fall to the party that wins the White House.
  • Inside: MNI's scenario analysis for the presidential race, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. A rundown of the electoral system, a guide to policies proposed by Harris and Trump, detailed analysis on the cases for both candidates, election wildcards, and a chartpack of polling.  

Full PDF article: US Election Preview