MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Tankan: Business Inflation Expectations Solid

MNI BRIEF: RBA Details Hypothetical Monetary Policy Paths

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI: SWEDEN NOV UNEMPLOYMENT 7.4%

MNI: UK OCT TRADE BALANCE GBP -3.72BN

MNI: UK OCT CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT -0.4% MM, +0.4% 3M3M, -0.7% YY

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Models Favour Harris

US
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeCommoditiesPower BulletsEmerging Market NewsEnergy BulletsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsPolitical Market News
  • Vice President Kamala Harris unveiled a fully fleshed out policy platform for the first time. Harris’ camp will hope that the platform launch can address voter concerns that Harris has fewer economic solutions than former President Donald Trump.
  • Trump's Electoral College advantage, a deeply ingrained conventional wisdom of the Trump era, may be shrinking as Harris shows surprising strength in the Rust Belt relative to the national vote.
  • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is looking at several alternate routes to retaining the Senate without Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) winning his tough race in Montana.
  • The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a “multi-million dollar” investment on TV ads in Florida and Texas – two large states that require significant investments to reach voters but are showing signs of being competitive this cycle.
  • Republicans are leading Democrats on a range of metrics that have historically been “highly predictive” of presidential election outcomes.
  • Harris has slightly improved on her national polling advantage and ticked up in the three key northern swing states.
  • Nate Silver’s forecast model is slightly more bullish on Harris this week, rising to a 58% implied probability of a Harris win.
  • Inside: A full round-up of polls, prediction market data, and notable news from the week.
Full article: US Elections Weekly
206 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Vice President Kamala Harris unveiled a fully fleshed out policy platform for the first time. Harris’ camp will hope that the platform launch can address voter concerns that Harris has fewer economic solutions than former President Donald Trump.
  • Trump's Electoral College advantage, a deeply ingrained conventional wisdom of the Trump era, may be shrinking as Harris shows surprising strength in the Rust Belt relative to the national vote.
  • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is looking at several alternate routes to retaining the Senate without Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) winning his tough race in Montana.
  • The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a “multi-million dollar” investment on TV ads in Florida and Texas – two large states that require significant investments to reach voters but are showing signs of being competitive this cycle.
  • Republicans are leading Democrats on a range of metrics that have historically been “highly predictive” of presidential election outcomes.
  • Harris has slightly improved on her national polling advantage and ticked up in the three key northern swing states.
  • Nate Silver’s forecast model is slightly more bullish on Harris this week, rising to a 58% implied probability of a Harris win.
  • Inside: A full round-up of polls, prediction market data, and notable news from the week.
Full article: US Elections Weekly