MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov CGPI Rises 3.7% Y/Y, Import Prices Drop

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Trump Momentum

Weekly snapshot of the US Elections
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskCommoditiesPolitical Risk BulletPower BulletsStoryEnergy BulletsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Executive Summary:

  • Former President Donald Trump’s polling has strengthened to the extent that many pundits now consider him the slight favourite in a toss-up race. Outside of the polls, the public discourse has undergone a major ‘vibe shift’ that suggests momentum for Trump that may belie the close race.
  • The New York Times-Siena College released their final national survey before Election Day, showing a dead heat 48-48 race for the popular vote. Data from the Times survey shows that Trump has a clear lead on two of the three the issues most likely to determine the election. 
  • Early voting data appears to show worrying signs for Harris.
  • Trump has all but closed the gap to Harris in the national polling average, which was as high at four percentage points according to some trackers in mid-September. The NYT tracker now shows Harris with a one-percentage-point advantage.
  • With the exception of Split-Ticket, all the presidential election forecast models we cover in this newsletter now lean towards Trump.
  • Big money continues to back Trump on prediction markets as more evidence emerges that a small group of 'whales' are moving the markets.  

Please find the full article attached below:US Elections Weekly

193 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Executive Summary:

  • Former President Donald Trump’s polling has strengthened to the extent that many pundits now consider him the slight favourite in a toss-up race. Outside of the polls, the public discourse has undergone a major ‘vibe shift’ that suggests momentum for Trump that may belie the close race.
  • The New York Times-Siena College released their final national survey before Election Day, showing a dead heat 48-48 race for the popular vote. Data from the Times survey shows that Trump has a clear lead on two of the three the issues most likely to determine the election. 
  • Early voting data appears to show worrying signs for Harris.
  • Trump has all but closed the gap to Harris in the national polling average, which was as high at four percentage points according to some trackers in mid-September. The NYT tracker now shows Harris with a one-percentage-point advantage.
  • With the exception of Split-Ticket, all the presidential election forecast models we cover in this newsletter now lean towards Trump.
  • Big money continues to back Trump on prediction markets as more evidence emerges that a small group of 'whales' are moving the markets.  

Please find the full article attached below:US Elections Weekly