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MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Elections Weekly: Trump Momentum

Weekly snapshot of the US Elections
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Executive Summary:

  • Former President Donald Trump’s polling has strengthened to the extent that many pundits now consider him the slight favourite in a toss-up race. Outside of the polls, the public discourse has undergone a major ‘vibe shift’ that suggests momentum for Trump that may belie the close race.
  • The New York Times-Siena College released their final national survey before Election Day, showing a dead heat 48-48 race for the popular vote. Data from the Times survey shows that Trump has a clear lead on two of the three the issues most likely to determine the election. 
  • Early voting data appears to show worrying signs for Harris.
  • Trump has all but closed the gap to Harris in the national polling average, which was as high at four percentage points according to some trackers in mid-September. The NYT tracker now shows Harris with a one-percentage-point advantage.
  • With the exception of Split-Ticket, all the presidential election forecast models we cover in this newsletter now lean towards Trump.
  • Big money continues to back Trump on prediction markets as more evidence emerges that a small group of 'whales' are moving the markets.  

Please find the full article attached below:US Elections Weekly

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Executive Summary:

  • Former President Donald Trump’s polling has strengthened to the extent that many pundits now consider him the slight favourite in a toss-up race. Outside of the polls, the public discourse has undergone a major ‘vibe shift’ that suggests momentum for Trump that may belie the close race.
  • The New York Times-Siena College released their final national survey before Election Day, showing a dead heat 48-48 race for the popular vote. Data from the Times survey shows that Trump has a clear lead on two of the three the issues most likely to determine the election. 
  • Early voting data appears to show worrying signs for Harris.
  • Trump has all but closed the gap to Harris in the national polling average, which was as high at four percentage points according to some trackers in mid-September. The NYT tracker now shows Harris with a one-percentage-point advantage.
  • With the exception of Split-Ticket, all the presidential election forecast models we cover in this newsletter now lean towards Trump.
  • Big money continues to back Trump on prediction markets as more evidence emerges that a small group of 'whales' are moving the markets.  

Please find the full article attached below:US Elections Weekly