MNI INTERVIEW: UK Borrowing For Investment Risky - OBR's Miles

MNI BRIEF: China Aug M1 Drops Further To Hit Record Low

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Introduce Additional Measures For Economy

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Central Bank Sees Further Disinflation

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY14.4 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY14.6 TRLN: PBOC

MNI BRIEF: China To Extend Retirement Age

MNI: CANADA JUL WHOLESALE SALES +0.9%; EX-AUTOS +0.3%

MNI: US AUG IMPORT PRICES -0.3%

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI POV # 2: June Scenarios

ECB
  • Baseline Scenario: The ECB announces that net purchases under the APP will end in July and will indicate that policy rate liftoff will occur later in the same month. Policy rates will reach zero by September and the ECB will signal that it stands ready to raise rates further at subsequent meetings, provided that the data is supportive
  • Hawkish Scenario: In addition to announcing the end of the APP and indicating rate liftoff in July, the ECB signals that it is willing to hike rates more aggressively, perhaps by explicitly referring to the ‘magnitude’ of future rate increases being data dependent. Furthermore, the ECB stresses that second round risks are intensifying and that it stands ready to adjust all policy instruments as necessary to return inflation to target. In a very hawkish scenario, the ECB could indicate the possibility of a 50bp rate hike in July, and even signpost the pace and scale of normalisation after Q3.
  • Dovish Scenario: The ECB still announces the end of APP and rate liftoff for July, but stresses that any policy normalisation will be gradual, effectively quashing the prospect of 50bp hikes further down the road. The ECB is seen to shift the balance (slightly) away from inflation risks to economic growth risks in light of the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war.
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeFixed Income BulletsBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.