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MNI Projects CPI cooling to +6.17%​

GERMAN DATA

We have now received state data that equates to 86.7% weighting of the national German CPI print (due at 1300 BST / 1400 CET).

  • MNI calculations estimate that national CPI rose by +0.27% m/m and by +6.17% Y/Y. This is based on the published index values for available state data. The data implies readings broadly in line with expectations, rounded to 0.3% m/m and 6.2% y/y.
  • Note: these estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normall the same.
M/MJuly (reported)June (reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia0.2%0.3%0.1%
Hesse0.3%0.2%-0.1%
Bavaria0.4%0.2%-0.2%
Brandenburg0.3%0.3%0.0%
Baden Wuert.0.2%0.3%0.1%
Berlin0.2%0.1%-0.1%
Saxony 0.3%0.3%0.0%
Rhineland-Palatinate0.3%0.2%-0.1%
Lower Saxony0.3%0.3%0.3%
Saarland0.3%0.2%-0.1%
Weighted average: 0.27%for 86.7%


Y/YJuly (reported)June (reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia5.8%6.2%0.4%
Hesse6.1%6.1%0.0%
Bavaria6.1%6.2%0.1%
Brandenburg6.7%6.7%0.0%
Baden Wuert.6.8%6.9%0.1%
Berlin6.1%5.9%-0.2%
Saxony6.7%6.8%0.1%
Rhineland-Palatinate6.1%6.4%0.3%
Lower Saxony6.0%6.6%0.6%
Saarland5.9%6.0%0.1%
Weighted average: 6.17%for 86.7%
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