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MNI RBA Review-September 2024: RBA On Hold But “Vigilant”

The RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35% as was unanimously expected.
Central Bank ReviewRBA -ReviewAPACAustraliaCentral Bank ReportsGlobalStoryRegionMarkets

MNI (AUSTRALIA) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35% as was unanimously expected and noted that information since the August meeting hadn’t changed the outlook “materially”. 
  • The Board continues to keep its options open with the format of the September discussion changing to reflect that it isn’t ruling “anything in or out”. It focused on what was different since the August meeting and what would need to happen for rates to be moved in either direction. As a result, the explicit rate hike consideration was dropped and the RBA seems firmly on hold.
  • Core disinflation progress has slowed and that was also likely the case in Q3. The Board would like to see more headway towards the target band before considering easing. As a result, rates will need to stay “sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards” target, which is not expected to occur until 2026. 
  • Q3 CPI is released on October 30 followed by Q4 on January 29 and the Board will likely want to see both of those reports before being “confident” that core inflation will “sustainably” return to target. 

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: RBA Review - September 2024.pdf

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MNI (AUSTRALIA) - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35% as was unanimously expected and noted that information since the August meeting hadn’t changed the outlook “materially”. 
  • The Board continues to keep its options open with the format of the September discussion changing to reflect that it isn’t ruling “anything in or out”. It focused on what was different since the August meeting and what would need to happen for rates to be moved in either direction. As a result, the explicit rate hike consideration was dropped and the RBA seems firmly on hold.
  • Core disinflation progress has slowed and that was also likely the case in Q3. The Board would like to see more headway towards the target band before considering easing. As a result, rates will need to stay “sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards” target, which is not expected to occur until 2026. 
  • Q3 CPI is released on October 30 followed by Q4 on January 29 and the Board will likely want to see both of those reports before being “confident” that core inflation will “sustainably” return to target. 

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: RBA Review - September 2024.pdf