-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI REALITY CHECK: US Apr Retail Sales Seen Weakest On Record
--Gas and Auto Sales To Drive Historic Dip In Sales As Virus Hits
By Brooke Migdon
WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. retail sales will slide by a record amount in
April, as waning consumer confidence and stay-at-home orders keep vehicle and
gas station sales low and apparel stores remained closed, industry leaders told
MNI.
Key points from their comments ahead of the May 15 report:
**U.S. retail sales likely bottomed out in April, the first full month of
coronavirus business closures tied to the coronavirus, as stay-at-home orders
issued in March begin not expire Industry groups are looking for sales to
improve slightly in May.
**Stockpiling of emergency supplies likely slowed in April as consumers
adjusted to shutdowns and anticipated state reopenings. Grocery store sales
remained strong.
**Vehicle sales likely plummeted to the lowest level in modern history,
exceeding March's 25.6% drop.
**Financial markets are expecting an 11.9% drop in sales for April
following March's 8.7% decline.
JACK KLEINHENZ, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT THE NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION
Plunging consumer confidence and massive cross-industry layoffs should keep
overall sales low, he told MNI.
"It's just going to be a matter of how much demand was out there from a
consumer standpoint and do they have a willingness to spend given the
environment they're in," he said, noting that more than 30 million Americans
filed for unemployment benefits last month and the economy shed nearly 21
million jobs.
Kleinhenz said grocery and food and beverage stores should continue to show
strength, though stockpiling that occurred through March slowed.
But the former Cleveland Fed economist said Friday's numbers won't
accurately capture the full extent of virus damage because April marks the first
full month of shutdowns and data collectors likely struggled to get "reliable"
responses from shuttered businesses. The Census Bureau also likely struggled to
seasonally adjust the April figures because the demand shocks were so unusual,
he said.
"When they're really exogenous shocks, they're not normal changes like a
holiday or a hurricane that they can factor in because of past data," he said.
MICHELLE KREBS, ANALYST AT AUTOTRADER
Vehicle sales fell to the lowest level in history in April, Krebs told MNI
in an interview. That should put significant pressure on headline sales.
"It was a dreadful month," she said of April vehicle sales, adding that new
vehicle sales plummeted to the lowest monthly seasonally-adjusted annual rate in
records dating back to 1976.
Krebs said sales likely hit rock bottom in April and should pick up in the
coming months, walking back a previous prediction that vehicle sales would
bottom out in May.
"We saw sales picking up at the end of the month," she said, attributing
the increase to deals like longer-term 0% financing offered by Fiat Chrysler and
General Motors following the onset of the pandemic. Sales should continue on an
upswing as states and dealerships reopen, she said.
PATRICK DE HAAN, HEAD OF PETROLEUM ANALYSIS AT GASBUDDY
Gas station sales slid for a fourth straight month in April, he told MNI in
an interview.
"Gasoline demand bottomed out about the first week in April, after falling
close to 50% from pre-coronavirus levels," he said. "Overall, demand is still
down most days anywhere from 30%-35% from pre-coronavirus levels."
De Haan said demand began to recover following the expiration of many
states' stay-at-home orders in early May, and prices along with it. Gas station
owners are cautiously optimistic about May profits.
"What was really ugly in terms of a fall in demand in March and April has
started to show signs of rebounding."
GARY RAINES, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT FOOTWEAR DISTRIBUTORS AND RETAILERS OF
AMERICA
Footwear sales were "absolutely decimated" by the coronavirus pandemic in
April as brick and mortar retailers across the country remained closed, Raines
told MNI in an interview. Footwear and apparel retailers are not considered
essential businesses under state and federal guidelines, so were unable to
operate in nearly every state.
But online purchases skyrocketed in April, nearing a triple-digit
percentage increase from one year ago, he said, citing FDRA survey data. But
e-commerce accounts for only 10%-15% of total footwear sales.
"It's just a fraction of brick and mortar," he said of online sales. "This
triple-digit surge still pales in comparison to the damage inflicted on brick
and mortar stores."
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUDR$,MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.