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MNI: St. Louis Fed Model Predicts May Employment Gain Slowed

U.S. employment likely rose by 440,000 in May, according to a real-time labor market index from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI. That's roughly half the gains predicted by the index for a month earlier.

The Coincident Employment Index, using weekly data from time-tracker software provider Homebase, shows "an improvement in employment, as measured by the household survey," in May, Dvorkin said. Homebase users tend to be smaller firms concentrated in retail and food and accommodation services.

The index suggested a seasonally adjusted gain of close to 800,000 in April, though official figures from BLS showed a decline of 115,000 for the month. "The large forecast error may be due, in part, to the religious holiday in April and the timing in which the CPS data is collected relative to the Homebase data," Dvorkin said.

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com

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