MNI Survey of Australia Q2 Consumer Price Index Inflation

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's consumer price index inflation is expected to

accelerate slightly in the second quarter and take year-on-year inflation inside

the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band for the first time in five quarters.

     According to MNI median forecast based on a poll of 16, the all groups or

headline CPI is expected to rise 0.5% q/q in Q2 compared with a 0.4% rise in Q1.

The y/y CPI is expected to rise 2.2% versus 1.9% in Q1. This would be the first

time in five quarters, and only the second time in 15 quarters that inflation

would be within the RBA's 2% to 3% target band.

     The data will be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics at 1130

hours local time Wednesday (0130 hours GMT).

     Below are individual forecasts for the second quarter CPI data. 

                     All        All

                  Groups     Groups    Trimmed       Underlying       Underlying

                     CPI        CPI       Mean       Inflation*       Inflation*

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     Q/Q        Y/Y        Q/Q              Q/Q              Y/Y

                % Change   % Change   % Change         % Change         % Change

                      Q2         Q2         Q2               Q2               Q2

Median              +0.5       +2.2       +0.5             +0.5             +1.9

High                +0.6       +2.3      +0.55            +0.55             +2.0

Low                 +0.3       +2.0       +0.4             +0.4             +1.8

Mean                +0.5       +2.2       +0.5             +0.5             +1.9

No of

Respondents           16         16          7               14               15

Previous

Report              +0.4       +1.9       +0.5             +0.5            +1.95

NAB                 +0.5       +2.3       +0.5            +0.45            +1.85

Westpac             +0.4       +2.1        N/A             +0.5             +1.9

ANZ                 +0.5       +2.3        N/A             +0.5             +1.9

CBA                 +0.6       +2.3       +0.5            +0.45             +1.9

UBS                 +0.6       +2.3       +0.5             +0.4             +1.8

Deutsche Bank       +0.4       +2.1        N/A             +0.5             +2.0

TD Securities       +0.6       +2.3      +0.55            +0.55             +2.0

RBC Capital         +0.6       +2.3        N/A             +0.5             +1.9

BA-ML               +0.3       +2.1       +0.4             +0.4            +1.85

St George           +0.3       +2.0        N/A             +0.5             +1.9

Moody's             +0.5       +2.1        N/A              N/A              N/A

StanChart           +0.4       +2.2        N/A              N/A             +1.9

JP Morgan           +0.4       +2.2       +0.5             +0.5             +1.8

Macquarie           +0.5       +2.2       +0.5             +0.5             +1.9

Citigroup           +0.5       +2.2        N/A            +0.55             +2.0

AMP Capital         +0.5       +2.2        N/A             +0.5             +1.9

     * Y/Y Underlying inflation is assumed as the average of trimmed mean and

weighted median measures of inflation.

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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