Free Trial

MNI Survey Of China Economic Forecasts

MNI (London)
     BEIJING (MNI) - All figures y/y percentage change unless otherwise
specified.
                                           New Loans
                        CPI  PPI       M2        Jan
                        Jan  Jan  End-Jan    CNY Bln
----------------------------------------------------
Median                  1.5  4.3      8.2       2000
High                      2  4.8      8.8       2800
Low                     1.3  3.9      7.7       1700
Mean                    1.5  4.4      8.2     2088.2
No.                      19   19       16         17
Previous                1.8  4.9      8.2      584.4
ANZ                     1.5    4      8.1       2300
Bank of Communications  1.4  3.9      8.2       2500
Capital Economics         2  4.3        8       2000
China Securities        1.7  4.2      7.7       1700
CICC                    1.5  4.3        8       2100
Guohai Sec              1.4  4.3       na       1900
Guotai Junan Sec        1.4  4.7        8       2000
Huatai Sec              1.3  4.8      8.8       2800
Industrial Bank         1.3  4.2      8.2       2000
Merchants Sec           1.6  4.6      8.8       2000
Minsheng Bank           1.5  4.4       na       2000
Moody's                 1.6  4.2       na         na
Morgan Stanley          1.6  4.7      8.1       2000
Nomura                  1.4  4.6      8.5       2200
Peking U                1.3  4.8        8       2000
Pingan Sec              1.7  4.7      8.4         na
Shanghai Sec            1.6  4.2      8.5       2000
Shenwan Hongyuan        1.7  4.6        8       2100
Southwest Sec           1.5  4.2      8.5       1900
                            TSF
                            Jan  Trade Bal    Exports    Imports
                        CNY Bln  Jan $ Bln  Jan ($ %)  Jan ($ %)
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median                     3000       56.7        9.8       8.45
High                       3600         60         25       21.4
Low                        2300       44.2          0          2
Mean                     2919.2       54.5       10.8        9.8
No.                          13         16         18         18
Previous                   1140      54.69       10.9        4.5
ANZ                        3000       56.8       10.4        8.3
Bank of Communications       na         57         15         15
Capital Economics          3500         na          0          6
China Securities             na         na        8.5          5
CICC                       2500       56.4         10          8
Guohai Sec                 2500         na        9.6        4.3
Guotai Junan Sec           2600         58          9          6
Huatai Sec                 3000       44.5         12         16
Industrial Bank            3600         49         25         10
Merchants Sec              2800         54        9.1        8.6
Minsheng Bank              2300         60         18         15
Moody's                      na         59         na         na
Morgan Stanley             3150       58.9         11        7.5
Nomura                     3200       44.2          5         11
Peking U                     na         52        8.5       15.5
Pingan Sec                   na       56.6          9          7
Shanghai Sec                 na         50       15.8       21.4
Shenwan Hongyuan           3000       59.2         13         10
Southwest Sec              2800      57.06          6          2
     Note: The survey median is compiled solely from the forecasts listed above
and is not intended to represent a market consensus.
     January trade data is due for release on Feb. 8.
     January CPI, PPI due for release at 0930 local/0130 GMT Feb. 9.
     January money supply, bank loans and total social financing expected to be
released between Feb. 10 and Feb. 12. Date and time uncertain.
     Industrial output, retail sales and YTD fixed-asset investment for January,
together with the data for February, will be released at 1000 local/0200 GMT on
March 14.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: iris.ouyang@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAQDT$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.