Free Trial

MNI Table: More Economists Favor Nov 2018 for RBA Hike

--Out of 21, 8 forecast RBA Hike in November
--Nomura Brings Forward RBA Hike Forecast From Q1 2019
By Sophia Rodrigues
     SYDNEY (MNI) - November is emerging as the most favored month for the first
hike in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate in this cycle, according to a
MNI poll of 21 economists.
     Nomura economists Andrew Ticehurst is the latest to join that group,
bringing forward his expectation for a 25bps hike to November this year from Q1
of next year. That takes the total to eight.
     Two of the four big banks are forecasting a hike in November. Among others,
Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Boak is also expecting a hike in November.
     As of Tuesday, money market is pricing 9bps or 36% chance of a 25bps hike
in November.
     Below is a table of forecasts for the next RBA cash rate decision on April
3 and the outlook for the cash rate, and where the risk is skewed towards (where
available). The cash rate is currently at 1.5%.
                    April 3                                  Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------
NAB                    Hold       25bps hike in Nov; 2 hikes in 2019
ANZ                    Hold           Hold in 2018; Hike in mid-2019
Westpac                Hold                          Hold 2018, 2019
CBA                    Hold         25bps hike in Nov; Risk of later
Goldman Sachs          Hold       25bps hike in Nov, risk of earlier
Citigroup              Hold         Hike in Nov, risk for later hike
JP Morgan              Hold              Hold for foreseeable future
HSBC                   Hold  25bps hike in Aug, risk skewed to later
TD Securities          Hold                        25bps hike in Nov
UBS                    Hold                    25bps hike in H1 2019
Deutsche Bank          Hold                        Hold through 2018
AMP Capital            Hold        25bps Hike in Nov, risk for later
Moody's                Hold                        Hold through 2018
St. George             Hold                    25bps hike in Q1 2019
Macquarie              Hold    25bps hike Q1 2019, 2.25% by end-2019
Nomura                 Hold                        25bps hike in Nov
RBC Capital            Hold                        Hold through 2018
BankAm-ML              Hold                         25bp hike in Nov
Morgan Stanley         Hold                       Hold until Q3 2019
Standard Chartered     Hold                             Hold in 2018
Wells Fargo            Hold                      Hold well into 2018
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.