MNI Table: More Economists Favor Nov 2018 for RBA Hike

--Out of 21, 8 forecast RBA Hike in November

--Nomura Brings Forward RBA Hike Forecast From Q1 2019

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - November is emerging as the most favored month for the first

hike in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate in this cycle, according to a

MNI poll of 21 economists.

     Nomura economists Andrew Ticehurst is the latest to join that group,

bringing forward his expectation for a 25bps hike to November this year from Q1

of next year. That takes the total to eight.

     Two of the four big banks are forecasting a hike in November. Among others,

Goldman Sachs economist Andrew Boak is also expecting a hike in November.

     As of Tuesday, money market is pricing 9bps or 36% chance of a 25bps hike

in November.

     Below is a table of forecasts for the next RBA cash rate decision on April

3 and the outlook for the cash rate, and where the risk is skewed towards (where

available). The cash rate is currently at 1.5%.

                    April 3                                  Outlook

--------------------------------------------------------------------

NAB                    Hold       25bps hike in Nov; 2 hikes in 2019

ANZ                    Hold           Hold in 2018; Hike in mid-2019

Westpac                Hold                          Hold 2018, 2019

CBA                    Hold         25bps hike in Nov; Risk of later

Goldman Sachs          Hold       25bps hike in Nov, risk of earlier

Citigroup              Hold         Hike in Nov, risk for later hike

JP Morgan              Hold              Hold for foreseeable future

HSBC                   Hold  25bps hike in Aug, risk skewed to later

TD Securities          Hold                        25bps hike in Nov

UBS                    Hold                    25bps hike in H1 2019

Deutsche Bank          Hold                        Hold through 2018

AMP Capital            Hold        25bps Hike in Nov, risk for later

Moody's                Hold                        Hold through 2018

St. George             Hold                    25bps hike in Q1 2019

Macquarie              Hold    25bps hike Q1 2019, 2.25% by end-2019

Nomura                 Hold                        25bps hike in Nov

RBC Capital            Hold                        Hold through 2018

BankAm-ML              Hold                         25bp hike in Nov

Morgan Stanley         Hold                       Hold until Q3 2019

Standard Chartered     Hold                             Hold in 2018

Wells Fargo            Hold                      Hold well into 2018

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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