MNI: Top Italy Election Player Says Centrist Upstarts Are Key

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - Small centrist parties that have sprouted up in Italy will

hold the key to the outcome of the country's March 4 general election, the

co-founder of one such grouping told Market News. 

     Senator Andrea Augello, who set up the 'Idea' party with around 50 rightest

renegades from Silvio Berlusconi's coalition, sees the attachment of parties

like his to the bigger Italian centre-right and centre-left beasts - in order to

lure the all-important swing voter - as the decisive factor.

     Such smaller groupings are proliferating in Italy at a time when rising

tensions in the centre-right coalition between former premier Silvio

Berlusconi's Forza Italia party and the populist Lega group over governing

program priorities are putting at risk the victory of the right. 

     Idea, a new "fourth-leg" moderate centrist party, may be able to rescue

Berlusconi if the Lega decides to withdraw its support. 

     RENZI'S DISADVANTAGE 

     Similar electoral moves are being made on the once powerful center-left

front. 

     The Democratic party of former prime minister Matteo Renzi, facing a

significant drop in support, is desperately looking for potential allies among

other leftist and environmentally-friendly "green" groups.

     The old guard's recent schism led to the birth of an anti-Renzi party that

has already drained support from the Democrats and could contribute to its

defeat. 

     "Luring swing voters, and, even tougher, unmotivated citizens back to the

ballot boxes will be the greatest challenge of parties, more so because of such

a penalising electoral system. But right now a large chunk of swing voters feel

more drawn towards Berlusconi than Renzi, for the simple fact that they already

know the man", argued Andrea Ungari, professor of political parties at

ROME-based University LUISS-Guido Carli.

     Ungari was referring to Italy's proportional voting system that favours

coalitions and makes it nearly impossible for any party to win alone. 

     The new electoral law has also lowered the parliament threshold entry level

from 5% to 3%, making it easier for any tiny group to be elected but at the same

time it has increased the dispersion of votes. 

     CENTRE-RIGHT SWINGS AHEAD 

     "We unite former left and right-wing politicians who can bring to the

center-right platform roughly 3-4% of additional votes, which will be crucial in

defeating the Democrats and supporting Berlusconi", Augello, who was himself

previously part of a formation supporting the Democrat-led government, told MNI.

     "It is crucial to motivate estranged and centrist, liberal swing voters who

don't look to any traditional left or right party including Forza Italia, Lega

and Fratelli d'Italia, which have so far been the 'three legs' of the

center-right alliance but might not be sufficient in conquering particular

voters", he added.

     The Idea party comprises senators and deputies who once belonged to

Berlusconi's coalition in the past but then abandoned it and are now 'returning'

to the center-right, explained Augello. The party sponsors the introduction of a

market-friendly flat tax and tax credits to start-ups led by young businessmen. 

     "Our flat tax idea is more realistic than the 15% one envisaged by the

Lega, which would be hard to effectively implement as way too far-fetched", said

Augello. 

     Political groups have 60 days of electoral campaigning to win over swing

voters and raise the potential turnout rate, which appears at the moment quite

low. According to recent polls, swing voters account for almost 56% of Italy's

current electorate.

     "This is why coalitions are paramount, the need to team up, following

polarisation schemes, has never been stronger than today. We want to contribute

in (aggregating) centrist voters towards the center-right", stressed Augello.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2223; email: david.robinson@marketnews.com

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