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MNI UK Inflation and Labour Preview - April 2024 Release

  • It’s another key week for UK data, with the highlights being labour market data due for release on Tuesday and inflation data due Wednesday.
  • Looking at the biggest single risks to both – Easter effects (particularly airfares) could boost inflation, while wage data could be higher-than-expected if there are more companies looking to pre-empt the National Living Wage (NLW) increases that are due to come in in April.
  • However, if either of these appear to be the drivers of upside surprises, although we may get a temporary spike in markets, we think the MPC would generally look through these.
  • Conversely, if we were to see downside surprises to either wage or services inflation data, the drivers are more likely to be more broad based.
  • The MNI Markets team thinks that the market is underpricing MPC cuts this year at the time of writing.

For the full document including summaries of sellside views for the labour market and inflation see the full PDF here:

UK_Data_Preview_2024_04_Release.pdf

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