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MNI UK Inflation / Labour Market Preview - Feb 2025 Release

UK inflation is due to move notably higher. We also take a deep dive look into the HMRC payrolls data.
HomepageInflation InsightEmployment InsightMarketsStory

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  • It’s another key week for UK data with labour market data (Tues), CPI (Wed) and the flash PMI (Fri) all due for release this week.
  • Inflation is expected to pick up (both headline and services) - largely driven by a reversal in the timing-induced soft airfares print, but private school VAT and bus fares are likely to contribute too.
  • On the labour market side, a rise in official AWE earnings data has been down downplayed in recent BOE communications as being inconsistent with other wage releases.
  • We therefore take a deep dive into the alternative HMRC PAYE data.
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For the full document click here.

  • It’s another key week for UK data with labour market data (Tues), CPI (Wed) and the flash PMI (Fri) all due for release this week.
  • Inflation is expected to pick up (both headline and services) - largely driven by a reversal in the timing-induced soft airfares print, but private school VAT and bus fares are likely to contribute too.
  • On the labour market side, a rise in official AWE earnings data has been down downplayed in recent BOE communications as being inconsistent with other wage releases.
  • We therefore take a deep dive into the alternative HMRC PAYE data.