MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: April Payrolls Seen +190,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 

in April after a stronger-than-expected 196,000 increase in March, with 

considerable upside risks from a drop in initial claims from the March 

survey week and a spike in the ADP report. The unemployment rate is 

expected to hold steady at 3.8% for another month. Hourly earnings are 

forecast to rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 

34.5 hours. 

     Analysts underestimated the rebound in payrolls in March after the 

sharp overestimate in February. Analysts have missed April payrolls to 

the low side in six of the last ten years. 

Forecast:                  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

 Median                       190     180     167     183     170     190

 Range High                   220     200     190     220     243     250

 Range Low                    140     166     135     141     145     165

Actual original result        155     312     304      20     196      NA

 Median-Actual                 35    -132    -137     163     -26      NA

Historical comparison:     Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                       150     220     233     205     195     185

 Range High                   190     250     315     250     225     255

 Range Low                    100     180     180     170     165     145

Actual original result        165     288     223     160     211     164

 Median-Actual                -15     -68      10      45     -16      21

                           Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

ISM Mfg Employment           57.7    56.0    55.5    52.3    57.5    52.4

ISM Nonmfg Employment        58.0    56.6    57.8    55.2    55.9      NA

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       46.8    45.5    46.7    45.7    42.5    46.8

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   34.2    33.3    34.1    34.0    28.7    33.5

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      9      -4      -3      -4       3     -23

  4-week mvg avg                7       3      -1       7      -9     -19

 Continuing claims             39       4       8      66     -18    -101

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)      2.1    -4.1    UNCH    -1.2    UNCH    UNCH

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    136     249     264     220     151     275

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]