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MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: April Payrolls Seen +190,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 
in April after a stronger-than-expected 196,000 increase in March, with 
considerable upside risks from a drop in initial claims from the March 
survey week and a spike in the ADP report. The unemployment rate is 
expected to hold steady at 3.8% for another month. Hourly earnings are 
forecast to rise 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 
34.5 hours. 
     Analysts underestimated the rebound in payrolls in March after the 
sharp overestimate in February. Analysts have missed April payrolls to 
the low side in six of the last ten years. 
Forecast:                  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19
 Median                       190     180     167     183     170     190
 Range High                   220     200     190     220     243     250
 Range Low                    140     166     135     141     145     165
Actual original result        155     312     304      20     196      NA
 Median-Actual                 35    -132    -137     163     -26      NA
Historical comparison:     Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18
 Median                       150     220     233     205     195     185
 Range High                   190     250     315     250     225     255
 Range Low                    100     180     180     170     165     145
Actual original result        165     288     223     160     211     164
 Median-Actual                -15     -68      10      45     -16      21
                           Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19
ISM Mfg Employment           57.7    56.0    55.5    52.3    57.5    52.4
ISM Nonmfg Employment        58.0    56.6    57.8    55.2    55.9      NA
Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       46.8    45.5    46.7    45.7    42.5    46.8
 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   34.2    33.3    34.1    34.0    28.7    33.5
Net change from survey week:
 Initial claims (Chg thsnd      9      -4      -3      -4       3     -23
  4-week mvg avg                7       3      -1       7      -9     -19
 Continuing claims             39       4       8      66     -18    -101
Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)      2.1    -4.1    UNCH    -1.2    UNCH    UNCH
ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    136     249     264     220     151     275
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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