MNI: US Data Forecast Focus:April Sales Seen +0.2%,Cars Down>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise by only 0.2% 

in April after a 1.6% rebound in March. Not seasonally adjusted industry 

motor vehicle sales were much slower in April, while AAA reported that 

gasoline prices rose further in mid-April from one month earlier. Retail 

sales are expected to rise 0.7% excluding motor vehicles after a 1.2% 

increase in March, with gasoline prices the key factor. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated the March sales rebound after a 

weak Febraury reading. Recent misses in past April reports have been 

tilted toward overestimates.

                         Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.3     1.0     0.2

 Range High                 0.6     0.2     0.5     0.5     1.3     0.4

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.0    -0.9    -0.4     0.3     0.0

Actual result               0.2    -1.2     0.2    -0.2     1.6    #N/A

 Median-Actual             -0.1     1.3    -0.3     0.5    -0.6    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                    -0.3     0.4     0.1     0.9     0.6     0.3

 Range High                 0.3     0.5     0.4     1.5     0.8     0.5

 Range Low                 -0.7     0.0    -0.5     0.3     0.4     0.2

Actual result              -0.1     0.1     0.0     1.3     0.4     0.3

 Median-Actual             -0.2     0.3     0.1    -0.4     0.2     0.0

                         Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.1     0.0     0.2     0.4     0.8     0.7

 Range High                 0.5     0.2     0.9     0.6     1.0     0.9

 Range Low                 -0.2    -0.2    -0.6    -0.2     0.1     0.4

Actual result:              0.2    -1.8     0.9    -0.4     1.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual             -0.1     1.8    -0.7     0.8    -0.4    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Apr-13  Apr-14  Apr-15  Apr-16  Apr-17  Apr-18

 Median                    -0.3     0.6     0.4     0.6     0.5     0.5

 Range High                 0.5     0.8     0.7     0.9     0.9     0.7

 Range Low                 -0.5     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.3     0.4

Actual result               0.1     0.0     0.1     0.8     0.3     0.3

 Median-Actual             -0.4     0.6     0.3    -0.2     0.2     0.2

                                 Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19  Apr-19

NA-Made Vehicle Sales, mln units    7.5     7.1     7.1     7.7     7.1

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM, Ford

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)        2.413   2.232   2.273   2.492  2.748

 mo/mo pct change                  #N/A     -7.5     1.8     9.6   10.3

Consumer confidence                126.6   121.7   131.4   124.2  129.2

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                         13.1    12.9    12.4    14.2   13.6

 Home                                5.9     7.2     5.4     6.4    5.0

 Major appliance                    49.0    50.0    48.6    51.8   48.4

--

* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]