MNI:US Data Forecast Focus: August Final Demand PPI Seen +0.2%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in August

after a flat July reading. Energy prices are expected to rebound following a

0.5% July decrease, while food prices are expected to tick higher after a 0.1%

decline. Excluding food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2% after a

modest 0.1% July increase.

     Analysts overestimated final demand PPI in July, owning to a declines in

food, energy and trade services and a softer than expected reading for core PPI.

The misses in the last ten August reports have been evenly split, but have

showed a tendencey to overestimate headline PPI in recent years.

                                  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.4     0.4     0.3     0.3     0.5

Range Low                            0.0     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1

Actual result                        0.3     0.1     0.5     0.3     0.0    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.2     0.1    -0.3    -0.1     0.2    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

Median                               1.4     0.2     0.0    -0.1     0.1     0.3

Range High                           2.0     0.4     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.4

Range Low                            0.5    -0.2    -0.1    -0.6    -0.1     0.1

Actual result                        1.7     0.3     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.2

Median-Actual                       -0.3    -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.1     0.1

                                  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3

Range Low                            0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1

Actual result                        0.3     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.1    #N/A

Median-Actual                       -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Aug-12  Aug-13  Aug-14  Aug-15  Aug-16  Aug-17

Median                               0.2     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Range High                           0.3     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0

Actual result                        0.2     0.0     0.1     0.3     0.1     0.1

Median-Actual                        0.0     0.1     0.0    -0.2     0.0     0.1

NOTE: From Jan. 2014

forward, forecast data are

for Final Demand PPI and

Core

                                          Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   79.3    79.5    76.8    73.2    72.1

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                61.8    64.3    60.7    63.4    62.8

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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