MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: CPI Seen Up 0.4%, Core Up 0.2%>

     WASINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.4% in November 

following a 0.1% rise in October. Analysts expect energy prices to 

rebound solidly after October's 1.0% decline. AAA reported a rebound in 

mid-month prices from October to November. The core CPI is forecast to 

post another 0.2% increase in October 

     Analysts corrctly estimated CPI in October, both overall and 

ex-food and energy. Misses in November have been mixed, but only rarely 

mnore than 0.1 percentage point. In fact, there have been correct 

estimates in each of the last two years. 

                          Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.0     0.2     0.3     0.6     0.1     0.4

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.4     0.7     0.2     0.5

 Range Low                   0.0     0.1     0.2     0.5     0.0     0.3

Actual result                0.0     0.1     0.4     0.5     0.1    #N/A

 vs median forecast          0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

 Median                      0.0    -0.2     0.1    -0.2     0.0     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.3

 Range Low                  -0.1    -0.3     0.0    -0.2     0.0     0.1

Actual result                0.0    -0.3     0.0    -0.3     0.0     0.2

 vs median forecast          0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0

                          Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2

 Range Low                   0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2    #N/A

 vs median forecast          0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Nov-11  Nov-12  Nov-13  Nov-14  Nov-15  Nov-16

 Median                      0.1     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range Low                   0.0     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                0.2     0.1     0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2

 vs median forecast         -0.1     0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0

Change in:

                                   Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal) 2.260   2.351   2.661   2.485   2.561

  mo/mo pct change                   #N/A     4.0    13.2    -6.6     3.1

ISM Mfg Index Price Index            62.0    62.0    71.5    68.5    65.5

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index         55.7    57.9    66.3    62.7    60.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]