MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January Sales Seen -0.1% On MV>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to fall by 0.1% in 

January after a 1.2% plunge in December on widespread weakness outside 

of an auto sales gain. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle 

sales slowed in January, while AAA reported that gasoline prices fell 

further in mid-January from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected 

to rise by 0.2% excluding motor vehicles after a 1.8% decline in 

December. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated December sales, when widespread 

decline led the headline meaure to decline by the fastest pace in nine 

years. Recent misses in past January suggest an downside risk for 

overall retail sales, but an upside risk when vehicle sales are 

excluded. 

                         Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.4     0.6     0.5     0.1     0.1    -0.1

 Range High                 0.5     0.8     0.9     0.6     0.2     0.5

 Range Low                  0.3     0.5     0.2    -0.2     0.0    -0.9

Actual result               0.1     0.1     0.8     0.2    -1.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.3     0.5    -0.3    -0.1     1.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18

 Median                     0.1     0.0    -0.5     0.1     0.2     0.2

 Range High                 0.6     0.3     0.4     0.4     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                 -0.6    -0.5    -0.8    -0.3    -0.2    -0.2

Actual result               0.1    -0.4    -0.8     0.2     0.4    -0.3

 Median-Actual              0.0     0.4     0.3    -0.1    -0.2     0.5

                         Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.5     0.4     0.5     0.1     0.0     0.2

 Range High                 0.7     0.7     0.8     0.5     0.2     0.9

 Range Low                  0.3     0.2     0.2    -0.2    -0.2    -0.6

Actual result:              0.3    -0.1     0.7     0.2    -1.8    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.2     0.5    -0.2    -0.1     1.8    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17  Jan-18

 Median                     0.1     0.1    -0.6     0.0     0.5     0.5

 Range High                 0.6     0.4     0.5     0.2     0.8     0.8

 Range Low                 -0.8    -0.2    -0.8    -0.2     0.3     0.0

Actual result               0.2     0.0    -0.9     0.1     0.8     0.0

 Median-Actual             -0.1     0.1     0.3    -0.1    -0.3     0.5

                                 Sep-18  Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19

NA-Made Vehicle Sales, mln units    7.8     7.6     7.4     7.5     7.1

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM, Ford

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.843   2.911   2.686   2.413   2.232

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A      2.4    -7.7   -10.2    -7.5

Consumer confidence               135.3   137.9   136.4   126.6   121.7

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        13.7    14.0    13.8    13.1    12.9

 Home                               6.2     6.4     6.4     5.9     7.2

 Major appliance                   52.9    53.8    54.8    49.0    50.0

--

* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]