MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: March ISM Mfg Index Seen At 54.6>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to tick 

up to a reading of 54.6 in March after a February dip. Regional 

conditions data have been mixed, while the flash Markit manufacturing 

index fell to 52.5. 

     Analysts sharply overestimated the February index after a large 

underestimate in the previous month. There has been an even split of 

underestimates and overestimates in the last 10 years of March releases, 

so there no clear forecast risk. 

Forecast:                Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19

 Median                    59.0    57.4    58.0    54.1    55.5    54.6

 Range High                60.0    58.3    58.3    55.0    57.5    56.0

 Range Low                 58.0    56.7    56.5    53.8    53.0    53.3

Actual result              57.7    59.3    54.1    56.6    54.2    #N/A

 Median-Actual              1.3    -1.9     3.9    -2.5     1.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Mar-13  Mar-14  Mar-15  Mar-16  Mar-17  Mar-18

 Median                    54.3    54.0    52.2    51.0    57.0    59.5

 Range High                56.5    55.0    54.5    51.5    61.0    63.6

 Range Low                 52.5    52.6    52.2    49.8    56.4    58.8

Actual result              51.3    53.7    51.5    51.8    57.2    59.3

 Median-Actual              3.0     0.3     0.7    -0.8    -0.2     0.2

                         Oct-18  Nov-18  Dec-18  Jan-19  Feb-19  Mar-19

 MNI Chicago               59.4    63.5    63.8    56.7    64.7    58.7

 Phila. Fed Index          19.7    11.9     9.1    17.0    -4.1    13.7

 Empire State Index        20.0    21.4    11.5     3.9     8.8     3.7

 Richmond Fed Index          15      14      -8      -2      16      10

 Markit Mfg Index          55.7    55.3    53.8    54.9    53.0    52.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]