MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: May Industrial Prod Seen +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to grow 0.2% 

in May after gains in the previous three months. Factory payrolls rose 

by 18,000 in May, while auto production jobs fell by 4,000 and the 

factory workweek fell to 40.8 hours from 41.0 hours in April. The ISM 

production index rose to 61.5 in the current month from 57.2 in the 

previous month, suggesting manufacturing production did not suffer from 

the slightly shorter workweek. Utilities production is expected to slow 

in the month after a weather-related gain in the previous month, but 

mining production could post another gain. Capacity utilization is 

forecast to stay at 78.0%, unchanged from April.     

     Analysts underestimated industrial production for the third month 

in a row in April, with most recent month driven higher by across the 

board gains. Recent May misses have been tilted toward overestimates, so 

this trend may end with this month's data. 

Industrial Production:     Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18

Forecast:

 Median                       0.5     0.2     0.4     0.4     0.6     0.2

 High                         0.9     0.3     0.8     0.9     1.0     0.5

 Low                          0.1    -0.3     0.0     0.1     0.1    -0.6

Actual result                 0.9    -0.1     1.1     0.5     0.7    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -0.4     0.3    -0.7    -0.1    -0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     May-12  May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17

 Median                       0.0     0.2     0.5     0.2    -0.3     0.2

 High                         0.3     0.5     0.7     0.4     0.3     0.5

 Low                         -0.2    -0.1     0.2     0.1    -0.6    -0.1

Actual result                -0.1     0.0     0.6    -0.2    -0.4     0.0

 Median-Actual                0.1     0.2    -0.1     0.4     0.1     0.2

Capacity Utilization:      Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18

Forecast:

 Median                      77.3    78.0    77.8    77.9    78.4    78.0

 High                        77.3    78.4    78.1    78.2    78.7    78.2

 Low                         77.2    77.0    77.4    77.7    78.2    77.4

Actual result                77.9    77.5    78.1    78.0    78.0    #N/A

 Median-Actual               -0.6     0.5    -0.3    -0.1     0.4    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     May-12  May-13  May-14  May-15  May-16  May-17

 Median                      79.2    77.9    78.9    78.2    75.1    76.8

 High                        79.4    78.1    79.0    78.6    75.5    77.0

 Low                         78.7    77.4    78.6    78.2    74.9    76.6

Actual result                79.0    77.6    79.1    78.1    74.9    76.6

 Median-Actual                0.2     0.3    -0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2

                           Dec-17  Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex.    10.1     9.9    10.0    10.2     9.9     9.9

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg       0.1    -0.1     1.0    -0.1     0.4    -0.3

Factory Jobs (000's)           39      20      31      21      25      18

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)         3       0       4       0       0      -4

Mining Jobs (000's)             1       6       9       8       8       6

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                59.3    59.1    60.8    59.3    57.3    58.7

  ISM Mfg Production         65.2    64.5    62.0    61.0    57.2    61.5

  Phila. Fed Index           27.9    22.2    25.8    22.3    23.2    34.4

  Empire State Index         19.6    17.7    13.1    22.5    15.8    20.1

  Chicago PMI                67.8    65.7    61.9    57.4    57.6    62.7

  Factory Workweek           40.8    40.7    41.0    40.9    41.0    40.8

  Factory Overtime            3.5     3.5     3.7     3.6     3.7     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]