MNI:US Data Forecast Focus:October CPI Seen +0.3%,Core +0.2%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in October 

after a smaller-than-expected 0.1% gain in September. The impact of 

Hurricane Michael is likely to be seen in a rebound in energy prices, 

reflecting damage to some energy production facilities. Food prices 

could see an impact as well. AAA reported a rise in mid-month prices 

from September, which could lift seasonally adjusted CPI gasoline prices 

after a 0.2% decline in the previous month. The core CPI is forecast to 

rise 0.2% following softer-than-expected 0.1% increases in both August 

and September. Analysts expect a rebound in used vehicle prices to add 

to the core reading. 

     Analysts overestimated both overall and core CPI in August and 

September, with a decline in used vehicle prices the key factor in the 

most recent month. For October CPI, analysts' misses have been mixed in 

direction and small, but correct estimates were far more common. 

                          May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

Overall CPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.3

 Range High                  0.3     0.2     0.2     0.4     0.2     0.4

 Range Low                   0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

Actual result                0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual               0.0     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

 Median                      0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.2     0.4     0.1

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.0     0.3     0.5     0.2

 Range Low                   0.0    -0.1    -0.2     0.1     0.3     0.0

Actual result                0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.2     0.4     0.1

 Median-Actual               0.0     0.1    -0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0

                          May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

Core CPI Forecast:

 Median                      0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.3     0.3     0.3     0.3

 Range Low                   0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Actual result                0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual               0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1     0.1    #N/A

Historical comparison:    Oct-12  Oct-13  Oct-14  Oct-15  Oct-16  Oct-17

 Median                      0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.2

 Range High                  0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.3

 Range Low                   0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.2     0.1

Actual result                0.2     0.1     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.2

 Median-Actual              -0.1     0.0    -0.1     0.0     0.1     0.0

Change in:

                                    Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18  Oct-18

AAA Self-serve Reg Unleaded ($/gal)  2.915   2.862   2.857   2.843   2.911

  mo/mo pct change                    #N/A    -1.8    -0.2    -0.5     2.4

ISM Mfg Index Price Index             76.8    73.2    72.1    66.9    71.6

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index          60.7    63.4    62.8    64.2    61.7

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]