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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) No Change As Fall Edges Closer To Key 113-280 Support
*RES 4: 114-247 Feb 14 high
*RES 3: 114-200 Congestion area Feb 7-Feb 14
*RES 2: 114-155 Feb 12 low, now resistance
*RES 1: 114-117/120 Feb 8 low, Feb 16 high
*PRICE: 114-092 @1230GMT
*SUP 1: 113-315 Feb 15 low
*SUP 2: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low
*SUP 3: 113-265 Aug 3 2009 low
*SUP 4: 113-065 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Pressure returned to the downside, following the short lived rally
back to 115-212. Support from 114-155 and then 114-092 gave way last week, a low
of 113-315 as we edge ever closer to the key long term support from April 2010
at 113-280. Resistance as a consequence moves to 114-117/114-120 but likely
needs to see a move back above the congested 114-200 region, before the near
term negative bias is reduced.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 120-010 Support Still Holding Up
*RES 4: 121-185 Feb 9 high
*RES 3: 121-075 Feb 14 high
*RES 2: 120-300 Hourly low Feb 14, now resistance
*RES 1: 120-245/250 Hourly low Feb 12, Feb 16 high
*PRICE: 120-205 @1240GMT
*SUP 1: 120-010 Feb 15 low, Mar 2008 high
*SUP 2: 119-115 Sep 2008 high, now support
*SUP 3: 119-110 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: 118-295 Median line off 2012 highs
*COMMENTARY* Continued to fall for most of last week, most latterly through the
month's previous 120-180/120-170 lows. A low of 120-010 on Thursday, in line
with the March 2008 high. Any lower and the Sep 2008 high and 1% volatility
band, at 119-115/119-110 by time today, become the next downside attraction. In
the interim, resistance from 120-210 has been breached but will likely need a
move back above 120-245/120-300, before near term downside bias is slowed.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 142-14/142-11 Support Holding Up So Far
*RES 4: 146-12 Feb 7 high
*RES 3: 145-09 Feb 14 high
*RES 2: 144-27 Feb 16 high
*RES 1: 144-06 Feb 20, Feb 21 highs
*PRICE: 143-24 @1247GMT
*SUP 1: 142-11/14 Dec 22 2014 low, 1% vol band, Feb 21 low
*SUP 2: 140-29 2% volatility band
*SUP 3: 140-26 Dec 1 2014 low
*SUP 4: 139-13 76.4% Fibo of 127-73/177-09
*COMMENTARY* Downside broke below 143-04 support on Thursday as we look to
extend losses below long term support from 144-03/143-25. Next supports of note
come from the December 2014 lows between 142-11 and 140-26. Sandwiched in
between is the lower 2% volatility band, at 140-29 by time today. Meanwhile,
resistance from 144-067/144-27, back through here will assist and likely allow a
better 146-12 rise, where next questions are asked.
US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 97.910 Support Bows To Near Term Pressure
*RES 4: 98.065 Feb 8 low, now resistance
*RES 3: 98.040 Feb 13 high
*RES 2: 98.005 Feb 12 low, now resistance
*RES 1: 97.965 Feb 20 high
*PRICE: 97.915 @1253GMT
*SUP 1: 97.895 Feb 22 low
*SUP 2: 97.845 Aug 3 2015 low
*SUP 3: 97.780 Jul 20 2015 low
*SUP 4: 97.765 Jul 6 2015 low
*COMMENTARY* The decline continues to grow apace, the latest falls leaving the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at 97.935 and the Aug 10 low at 97.910, in its wake, as
we continue to give back the 95.980-99.240 gains seen over the last 5 years.
Having lost 97.955-97.935 there are currently only previous lows to consider
now, until we reach the 50% Fibo retrace level at 97.610. Resistance falls to
97.965 back above needed to provide some respite.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.