MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Key Near Term Support From 113-130 Holds Up

*RES 4: 114-035 76.4% Fibo of 114-152/112-290

*RES 3: 113-280 61.8% Fibo of 114-152/112-290

*RES 2: 113-240/255 Jul 2, Jun 28 highs

*RES 1: 113-210/215 Jul 3, Jul 5 highs

*PRICE: 113-197 @0815GMT

*SUP 1: 113-160 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 113-130/140 Jun 25, Jul 3 lows, 76.4% 113-130/113-210

*SUP 3: 113-095 Jun 22 low

*SUP 4: 113-050 Jun 21 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has so far been unable to make any ground above the

Jun 28 high at 113-255. The subsequent pullback has slipped back below 113-157,

thereby exposing the key 113-130 support level. Would anticipate this to hold,

if a deeper 113-095/113-050 correction is to be avoided. While 113-130 remains

intact, then look to Tuesday & Thursday's 113-210/113-215 highs for next clues.

Above and a further 113-240/113-280 rise is then on the cards.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Pullback Retests 119-300 Support

*RES 4: 120-220 Equality rise from 119-135 to 118-295/120-060

*RES 3: 120-185 76.4% Fibo of 121-030/118-295

*RES 2: 120-145/150 Jun 28, May 31 highs

*RES 1: 120-135 Jul 5 high

*PRICE: 120-105 @0824GMT

*SUP 1: 119-300 Jun 27, Jul 3 lows

*SUP 2: 119-265 Jun 26 low

*SUP 3: 119-205 Jun 22 low

*SUP 4: 119-135 Jun 21 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from last month's dip to 118-295 has so far been

capped by 120-145. The subsequent pullback is likely to test support from

between 119-300/119-265. A loss of the latter would however caution and suggest

a deeper 119-205/119-135 fall, as retracements of those gains from 118-295 begin

to bite. On the topside, a move back above 120-120 has assisted and should allow

re-examination of 120-145/120-150 and potentially higher.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Rally Challenging Key 145-25/145-28 Area

*RES 4: 146-15 1% volatility band

*RES 3: 146-03 Apr 2 high

*RES 2: 145-28 May 30 high

*RES 1: 145-25 Equality rise from 143-01 to 142-01/144-25

*PRICE: 145-18 @0830GMT

*SUP 1: 144-14/27 Hourly support, Jul 5 low

*SUP 2: 144-04/05 Jun 21 high, Jun 27 low

*SUP 3: 143-30 Jun 26 low

*SUP 4: 143-13 Jun 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Broke through the 145-16 area on Thursday and has been followed by

a test to the equality rise target at 145-25 and the May 30 high at 145-28.

Meanwhile support now comes from 144-27, with compressed levels between

144-14/143-30 waiting below. Only a loss of the latter would suggest extra scope

to see a 143-13/143-01 fall. In the interim, a sustained break above 145-28 will

likely see a 146-03/146-15 challenge next.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (U18) 97.560 Resistance Proving Difficult To Break

*RES 4: 97.640 May 29 high

*RES 3: 97.600 76.4% Fibo of 97.640-97.475

*RES 2: 97.575 May 14 high, 61.8% of 97.640-97.475

*RES 1: 97.560 Jun 7 high

*PRICE: 97.545 @0832GMT

*SUP 1: 97.520 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 97.500 Jun 14 low

*SUP 3: 97.475 Apr 25, May 8 lows

*SUP 4: 97.425 50% Fibo of 95.695-99.155

*COMMENTARY* Saw a move back above the 9 month falling resistance line in early

May and this has been the precursor to some recovery. We have subsequently seen

a rally back to 97.640 where the rally stalled. As a result, there has been a

fresh fall below 97.500 support, although the decline has been held by the

stronger 97.475 level. This remains key to overall direction. Nearest resistance

97.560-97.575, although above 97.600 needed for impetus.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]