MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Still Finding Support From Above Key Near Term Level

*RES 4: $1.1881/90 June 2010 low, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1855 1.618 swing $1.1777-$1.1650

*RES 2: $1.1805 4 month bull channel top projection

*RES 1: $1.1777 Jul 27 high

*PRICE: $1.1726 @0835GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1675/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1650 Jul 27 low

*SUP 3: $1.1613 Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1.1583 Jul 18 high, now support 

*COMMENTARY* Fresh upside interest produced a rally late last week which has

taken us slightly above $1.1773, the swing target of the recent $1.1712-$1.1613

fall but yet to test the 4 month bull channel top projection at $1.1805. As a

result support now comes firstly from $1.1695-$1.1675 and then Thursday's

$1.1650 low. Loss here would caution and suggest the power of the rise is

beginning to wane. Directly above $1.1805 and $1.1855 next.

CABLE TECHS: Falters So Far At Lower Edge Of 1.3165-$1.3184 Resistance 

*RES 4: $1.3253 Equality rise target from $1.2812

*RES 3: $1.3245 1.618 swing of $1.3126-$1.2933

*RES 2: $1.3184 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3159/65 Jul 27 high, 1.618 swing $1.3030-$1.2812

*PRICE: $1.3111 @0844GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3075/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3050 Jul 27 low

*SUP 3: $1.3020 Jul 21 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2989/05 Jul 24 low, 7 week rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Has broken above the previous $1.3126 high, the next band of

resistance seen as situated between $1.3165-$1.3184. Support now adjusted

slightly to $1.3075-85, with $1.3050 below, this the brake to a deeper

$1.3020-$1.3005 fall. The latter the 7 week rising support line. Directly above

$1.3184 and the swing target at $1.3245 and then $1.3253, the equality rise from

$1.2812, are next upside objectives.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fresh Fall Opens Potential For A Y110.16-Y109.63 Decline

*RES 4: Y112.20 Jul 26 high

*RES 3: Y111.72 Jul 27 high

*RES 2: Y111.29 Jul 28 high

*RES 1: Y110.95/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.67 @0901GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.16/22 76.4% of Y108.82-Y114.50, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: Y109.63 76.4% Y108.13-Y114.50, swing Y110.62-Y112.20

*SUP 3: Y109.36 4 month rising support line

*SUP 4: Y109.11 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break free of the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at Y112.10

last Wednesday, a high of Y112.20 before succumbing to a fresh fall. The

subsequent move below the Jul 24 high at Y111.32 has seen near term bias return

to the downside, the further loss of the key Y110.62-Y110.48 area then opening

the potential for a further Y110.16-Y109.63 decline. Resistance Y110.95-Y111.05

but back above Friday's Y111.29 high currently needed for respite.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Consolidation Range Still Prevails

*RES 4: Y131.52 1.618 swing of Y130.51-Y128.87

*RES 3: Y131.09 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y130.62/77 Jul 26, Jul 11 highs 

*RES 1: Y130.41 Jul 28 high

*PRICE: Y129.86 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.55 Jul 27 low

*SUP 2: Y129.25 Jul 25 low

*SUP 3: Y128.87 Jul 24 low 

*SUP 4: Y128.49/58 Jul 13, Jul 19 lows 

*COMMENTARY* Has settled into a range over the last 3 weeks below the Jul 11

high at Y130.77. The upside will only benefit on a clear break here, with the

upper 1% volatility band then the bar to a greater Y131.52-Y132.18 rise. The

latter the swing target of the Y130.77-Y128.49 fall seen earlier this month. In

the interim, a succession of recent lows currently protect the base of the range

at that Y128.49 level. Loss here would disappoint now.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8970 Break Needed To Resume Rally

*RES 4: Stg0.9052 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9028 Nov 9 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8994 Jul 21 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8970 Jul 25 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8948 @0936GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8891/99 Jul 27, Jul 18 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.8867 Hourly base Jul 20

*SUP 3: Stg0.8820/29 12 week rising suppt line, Jul 19 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8802 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.8994

*COMMENTARY* Still in corrective mode after the month's earlier rally to

Stg0.8994, took us above the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8983. This of the

previous Stg0.9402-Stg0.8305 fall seen between Oct-Dec last year. Support from

the Jul 18 high at Stg0.8899 high came under pressure last Thursday, a low of

Stg0.8891 seen, really need to hold here, if the near term bias is to remain for

higher. Resistance now comes from Stg0.8970.

GOLD TECHS: Continues To Move Back Up The 5 Month Range

*RES 4: $1289.0 Jun 8 high

*RES 3: $1281.5 Jun 14 high

*RES 2: $1274.6 Jun 6 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1296.1-$1204.8

*RES 1: $1271.3 Jul 28 high

*PRICE: $1267.1 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: $1254.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1251.9 Initial rally high Jul 26, now support

*SUP 3: $1243.9 Jul 26 low

*SUP 4: $1235.4 Jul 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The move back up the 5 month range continued last week, with the

latest move through both the June highs at $1258.9 and also the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at $1261.2. Thursday's $1265.5 high now breached but $1271.3 and

then the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1274.6 currently look more worthy targets.

In the interim, support also on the rise, $1254.5 initially and then more

importantly in the near term from $1251.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]