MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1866 Next Fibo Support But $1.1818-28 More Important

*RES 4: $1.2070 Aug 29 high

*RES 3: $1.2025 Hourly recovery high Aug 29

*RES 2: $1.1984 Aug 30 high

*RES 1: $1.1945 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1885 @0835GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1866 50% Fibo of $1.1662-$1.2070

*SUP 2: $1.1818/28 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2070, Aug 21 high

*SUP 3: $1.1773 Aug 25 low

*SUP 4: $1.1754/58 Initial rally high Aug 17, 76.4% Fibo

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's $1.2070 rally was capped between the swing target of the

$1.1911-$1.1662 fall and the upper 2% volatility band. Has since fallen away,

aided by the appearance of a 'Gravestone Doji' like candle close on that day.

Now correcting those $1.1662-$1.2070 gains, with next support from the 50%

retrace level at $1.1866. Below and the $1.1818-28 area important and protecting

recent upside momentum. Resistance $1.1945-$1.1984 but $1.2025 now key.

CABLE TECHS: Currently Correcting Recent $1.2774-$1.2979 Gains

*RES 4: $1.3022 50% of $1.3269-$1.2774, Aug 14 high

*RES 3: $1.2979 Aug 29 high

*RES 2: $1.2955 Hourly recovery highs Aug 29

*RES 1: $1.2938 Aug 30 high

*PRICE: $1.2897 @0844GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2874 Aug 28 low

*SUP 2: $1.2852 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.2979

*SUP 3: $1.2822 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.2979

*SUP 4: $1.2774 Aug 24 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery faltered on Tuesday at $1.2979, shy of a test to the

upper 1% volatility band and the next Fibo retrace, the 50% at $1.3022. Downside

now exploring support below $1.2900, sustained break lower will have the

capacity to reach $1.2874-$1.2822 as we correct the recent gains from the Aug 24

low at $1.2774, just above the key 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2749. Meanwhile,

back above $1.2938-$1.2955 needed to boost near term hopes.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bullish 'Outside Day' Already Sees A 38.2% Fibo Retrace

*RES 4: Y111.72 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y111.38 50% Fibo of Y114.50-Y108.27

*RES 2: Y110.95 Aug 16 high

*RES 1: Y110.63/65 1% vol band, 38.2% Fibo of Y114.50-Y108.27

*PRICE: Y110.53 @0856GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.70/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.15 Hourly congestion area Aug 25-28

*SUP 3: Y108.85 Aug 23 low

*SUP 4: Y108.27/44 Aug 29 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fall was held by the lower 1% volatility band on Tuesday,

thereby preserving the year's previous Y108.13 low. The subsequent recovery

created a potentially bullish 'outside day' on the daily chart, a fresh low

coupled with a close above the previous day's high. This has already seen a move

towards the upper 1% volatility band and 38.2% Fibo level at Y110.65. Support

comes from between Y109.75-Y109.15 but only below Y108.85 would caution.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.90-95 Support Keeps Immediate Focus On Higher

*RES 4: Y133.63 76.4% Fibo of Y141.08-Y109.51

*RES 3: Y132.33/53 Jan 25 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Y132.06 Underside prev broken 5 month support line

*RES 1: Y131.71 Aug 30 high

*PRICE: Y131.47 @0903GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.90/95 Hourly support, Aug 30 low

*SUP 2: Y130.45 Hourly basing area Aug 29

*SUP 3: Y130.15 Hourly congestion area Aug 28-29

*SUP 4: Y129.66 Aug 28 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally has now surpassed the previous Y131.41 high and is now

considering an assault on Y132.06-Y132.53 resistance. Has faltered so far at the

slightly earlier Y131.71 level, as the rise became dogged by near term

overbought conditions. In this respect, still look to Y130.90-95 for initial

support, this protecting against a greater Y130.45-Y130.15 fall, as we give back

some of the gains from Monday's Y128.66 low.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Equality Rise Target Caps, Stg0.9188-90 Now Key Support

*RES 4: Stg0.9382/86 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.9310 Equality rise from 0.8743 to 0.8313-0.8880

*RES 2: Stg0.9270/80 Aug 30 high, hourly base Aug 29

*RES 1: Stg0.9245/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.9228 @0916GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.9190/02 Aug 24 low, 7 week rising support line 

*SUP 2: Stg0.9142 Aug 16 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.9117 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.9091 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.8743-Stg0.9306

*COMMENTARY* Having broken slightly above both the upper 1% volatility band and

the 4 month bull channel top, at Stg0.9294 and Stg0.9297 respectively, the rally

was halted just below the equality rise target at Stg0.9310. The subsequent

pullback, aided by a 'Doji' candle close on Tuesday, has tested the 7 week

support line and key near term support between Stg0.9202-Stg0.9190. Sustained

loss of the latter would concern.

GOLD TECHS: $1295.1 Support Protects Against Deeper Corrective Potential

*RES 4: $1337.6 Nov 9 high

*RES 3: $1326.2 Aug 29 high

*RES 2: $1313.8 Aug 30 high

*RES 1: $1309.9 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1306.5 @0929GMT

*SUP 1: $1295.1 Aug 25 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1286.5 Congestion area Aug 18-25

*SUP 3: $1274.7 Aug 25 low

*SUP 4: $1267.4 Aug 15 low

*COMMENTARY* A sharp spike lower last Friday found support from above the Aug 1

high at $1274.2. This keeping near term momentum with the topside. The

subsequent break back above $1294.4 confirmed this, followed by further breaks

above the Aug 18 high at $1300.9 and then the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1315.7. A high of $1326.2 so far, with $1337.6-$1352.5 as the next target area.

Overbought near term, $1295.1 support now protects against a deeper correction.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]