MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Approaching Decent Support Area Between $1.1679-$1.1620

*RES 4: $1.1859/61 Head & Shoulders neckline, Sep 20 low

*RES 3: $1.1833/37 Sep 29 high, Sep 14 low

*RES 2: $1.1788 Oct 4 high

*RES 1: $1.1745/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1697 @0849GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1662/79 Aug 17 low, 23.6% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2093

*SUP 2: $1.1639/45 2 recent swing targets, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: $1.1620 1.618x $1.2093-$1.1837 from $1.2034

*SUP 4: $1.1528 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Slipping lower as we move towards the next set of supports,

initially from $1.1679-$1.1662 and then between $1.1645-$1.1620. Again some

oversold near term conditions are evident but will need a move back above

$1.1745-$1.1750 and then more importantly Wednesday's $1.1788 high, before any

belief in a recovery will arise and allow a correction of losses from last

month's $1.2093 high. Below $1.1620 and not much until $1.1528.

CABLE TECHS: Lower Again, Look To $1.3060-$1.3030 For Next Support

*RES 4: $1.3222 Oct 3 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3205 Hourly recovery high Oct 5

*RES 2: $1.3174/75 Hourly low/high Oct 5

*RES 1: $1.3115/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3075 @0907GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3060 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3030/40 Jun 30 high, 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2979/83 Aug 29 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659

*SUP 4: $1.2909/13 Sep 5, Sep 4 lows

*COMMENTARY*  Lost ground on Thursday, leaving the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1.3112 behind. Now testing hourly support at $1.3060 but looks to have become

oversold in the near term. As a result, look towards $1.3115-$1.3125 for initial

clues, as back above here the minimum needed before a better $1.3174-$1.3205

recovery can occur. Below $1.3060 and anticipate the $1.3040-$1.3030 area to

provide next support ahead of the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2983.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Consolidation Continues After Equality Rise Target Caps Rise 

*RES 4: Y114.33 61.8% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32

*RES 3: Y113.91 1.618 swing of Y113.26-Y112.21

*RES 2: Y113.50/77 1.618 swing Y112.72-Y111.47, 1% vol band

*RES 1: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04

*PRICE: Y113.02 @0916GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.50/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y112.32 Oct 4 low

*SUP 3: Y112.21 Sep 29 low

*SUP 4: Y111.89 76.4% Fibo of Y111.47-Y113.26

*COMMENTARY* The key Y111.45 support held last week and prefaced another rise.

This has broken above the year's Y112.67 falling resistance line and the 50%

Fibo retrace level at Y113.00 but has so far been capped by the equality rise

target at Y113.27. As a result, support has also risen, Y112.32-Y112.21 the

initial area now and protection against a deeper correction of those gains from

Y111.47. Directly above Y113.27 and have Y113.50-Y113.91 to negotiate next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Testing Towards The Base Of Recent Consolidation Range

*RES 4: Y133.50/53 Sep 22 low, hourly base Sep 22

*RES 3: Y133.12 Sep 29 high

*RES 2: Y132.84/89 Oct 4, Oct 3 highs

*RES 1: Y132.50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.21 @0926GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.71/75 Aug 30 high, Sep 26 low

*SUP 2: Y131.51 76.4% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41

*SUP 3: Y131.17/30 1% vol band, 61.8% of Y129.37-Y134.41

*SUP 4: Y130.90 1.618 swing of Y131.75-Y133.12

*COMMENTARY* The rally failed at Y134.41 late last month, in line with a test to

the 61.8% Fibo retrace of the long term  Y149.80-Y109.51 fall. In the interim,

we have seen a loss of Y133.26 support, beneath which opened the prospect of a

deeper Y131.71-Y131.51 decline, as we correct the most recent gains from the Sep

14 low at Y130.62. Meanwhile, nearest resistance falls to Y132.84-Y133.12. Back

above the latter currently needed to break out of the recent consolidation.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8900 Break Opens Up Greater Corrective Hopes

*RES 4: Stg0.9026 50% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8746

*RES 3: Stg0.9013 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8995 1.618 swing of Stg0.8900-Stg0.8746

*RES 1: Stg0.8960 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8746

*PRICE: Stg0.8953 @0929GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8890/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8876 Oct 5 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8850 Oct 4 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8822 Oct 4 low

*COMMENTARY* After building for the few days, we finally got the break above

Stg0.8900 on Thursday. This should set us on the way for a decent correction of

the Stg0.9306-Stg0.8746 losses sustained over the last month. A high of

Stg0.8955 so far but while support from above Stg0.8900-Stg0.8890 holds, then

look for an increased Stg0.8960-Stg0.8995 rise next. Loss of Stg0.8890 will

disappoint now and put pressure back on the day's Stg0.8876 low.

GOLD TECHS: Correction Continues, $1263.2 The Next Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1290.5 Sep 29 high

*RES 3: $1284.5 4 week falling resistance line

*RES 2: $1279.1 Oct 5 high

*RES 1: $1274.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1268.8 @0945GMT

*SUP 1: $1263.2 61.8% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 2: $1251.7 Aug 8 low

*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1237.7 2017 bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* Support from the Aug 25 low at $1274.7 yielded on Monday. Below

here and not much in the way to prevent a fall to the next Fibo retrace level at

$1263.2, this as we continue to move back down the 2017 bull channel. As a

result, nearest resistance currently comes from $1274.2-$1279.1 but back above

the 4 week falling resistance line, at $1284.5 by time today, is likely needed

before any real recovery can begin.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]