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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Approaching Decent Support Area Between $1.1679-$1.1620
*RES 4: $1.1859/61 Head & Shoulders neckline, Sep 20 low
*RES 3: $1.1833/37 Sep 29 high, Sep 14 low
*RES 2: $1.1788 Oct 4 high
*RES 1: $1.1745/50 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1697 @0849GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1662/79 Aug 17 low, 23.6% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2093
*SUP 2: $1.1639/45 2 recent swing targets, 1% vol band
*SUP 3: $1.1620 1.618x $1.2093-$1.1837 from $1.2034
*SUP 4: $1.1528 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Slipping lower as we move towards the next set of supports,
initially from $1.1679-$1.1662 and then between $1.1645-$1.1620. Again some
oversold near term conditions are evident but will need a move back above
$1.1745-$1.1750 and then more importantly Wednesday's $1.1788 high, before any
belief in a recovery will arise and allow a correction of losses from last
month's $1.2093 high. Below $1.1620 and not much until $1.1528.
CABLE TECHS: Lower Again, Look To $1.3060-$1.3030 For Next Support
*RES 4: $1.3222 Oct 3 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.3205 Hourly recovery high Oct 5
*RES 2: $1.3174/75 Hourly low/high Oct 5
*RES 1: $1.3115/25 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3075 @0907GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3060 Hourly support, intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3030/40 Jun 30 high, 2% volatility band
*SUP 3: $1.2979/83 Aug 29 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659
*SUP 4: $1.2909/13 Sep 5, Sep 4 lows
*COMMENTARY* Lost ground on Thursday, leaving the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1.3112 behind. Now testing hourly support at $1.3060 but looks to have become
oversold in the near term. As a result, look towards $1.3115-$1.3125 for initial
clues, as back above here the minimum needed before a better $1.3174-$1.3205
recovery can occur. Below $1.3060 and anticipate the $1.3040-$1.3030 area to
provide next support ahead of the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2983.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Consolidation Continues After Equality Rise Target Caps Rise
*RES 4: Y114.33 61.8% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32
*RES 3: Y113.91 1.618 swing of Y113.26-Y112.21
*RES 2: Y113.50/77 1.618 swing Y112.72-Y111.47, 1% vol band
*RES 1: Y113.27 Equality rise from Y109.55 to Y107.32-Y111.04
*PRICE: Y113.02 @0916GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.50/60 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y112.32 Oct 4 low
*SUP 3: Y112.21 Sep 29 low
*SUP 4: Y111.89 76.4% Fibo of Y111.47-Y113.26
*COMMENTARY* The key Y111.45 support held last week and prefaced another rise.
This has broken above the year's Y112.67 falling resistance line and the 50%
Fibo retrace level at Y113.00 but has so far been capped by the equality rise
target at Y113.27. As a result, support has also risen, Y112.32-Y112.21 the
initial area now and protection against a deeper correction of those gains from
Y111.47. Directly above Y113.27 and have Y113.50-Y113.91 to negotiate next.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Testing Towards The Base Of Recent Consolidation Range
*RES 4: Y133.50/53 Sep 22 low, hourly base Sep 22
*RES 3: Y133.12 Sep 29 high
*RES 2: Y132.84/89 Oct 4, Oct 3 highs
*RES 1: Y132.50 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y132.21 @0926GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.71/75 Aug 30 high, Sep 26 low
*SUP 2: Y131.51 76.4% Fibo of Y130.62-Y134.41
*SUP 3: Y131.17/30 1% vol band, 61.8% of Y129.37-Y134.41
*SUP 4: Y130.90 1.618 swing of Y131.75-Y133.12
*COMMENTARY* The rally failed at Y134.41 late last month, in line with a test to
the 61.8% Fibo retrace of the long term Y149.80-Y109.51 fall. In the interim,
we have seen a loss of Y133.26 support, beneath which opened the prospect of a
deeper Y131.71-Y131.51 decline, as we correct the most recent gains from the Sep
14 low at Y130.62. Meanwhile, nearest resistance falls to Y132.84-Y133.12. Back
above the latter currently needed to break out of the recent consolidation.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8900 Break Opens Up Greater Corrective Hopes
*RES 4: Stg0.9026 50% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8746
*RES 3: Stg0.9013 2% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8995 1.618 swing of Stg0.8900-Stg0.8746
*RES 1: Stg0.8960 38.2% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8746
*PRICE: Stg0.8953 @0929GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8890/00 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8876 Oct 5 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8850 Oct 4 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8822 Oct 4 low
*COMMENTARY* After building for the few days, we finally got the break above
Stg0.8900 on Thursday. This should set us on the way for a decent correction of
the Stg0.9306-Stg0.8746 losses sustained over the last month. A high of
Stg0.8955 so far but while support from above Stg0.8900-Stg0.8890 holds, then
look for an increased Stg0.8960-Stg0.8995 rise next. Loss of Stg0.8890 will
disappoint now and put pressure back on the day's Stg0.8876 low.
GOLD TECHS: Correction Continues, $1263.2 The Next Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: $1290.5 Sep 29 high
*RES 3: $1284.5 4 week falling resistance line
*RES 2: $1279.1 Oct 5 high
*RES 1: $1274.2 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1268.8 @0945GMT
*SUP 1: $1263.2 61.8% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7
*SUP 2: $1251.7 Aug 8 low
*SUP 3: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7
*SUP 4: $1237.7 2017 bull channel base
*COMMENTARY* Support from the Aug 25 low at $1274.7 yielded on Monday. Below
here and not much in the way to prevent a fall to the next Fibo retrace level at
$1263.2, this as we continue to move back down the 2017 bull channel. As a
result, nearest resistance currently comes from $1274.2-$1279.1 but back above
the 4 week falling resistance line, at $1284.5 by time today, is likely needed
before any real recovery can begin.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.