MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fresh Rally Now Has $1.1725-$1.1757 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.1824 50% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 3: $1.1785 Hourly congestion late October

*RES 2: $1.1754/57 2 month falling res line, 1% vol band

*RES 1: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1720 @1040GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1655/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1638 Nov 13 low

*SUP 3: $1.1600 Hourly congestion Nov 8-9

*SUP 4: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from around the $1.1555 level last Tuesday, before

being rescued by some near term oversold conditions. Thursday's move back above

the previously troublesome $1.1660 area is a positive, as is today's through the

Nov 3 high at $1.1690. This now sees the $1.1725-$1.1757 area as next

resistance. Meanwhile, $1.1660-$1.1655 provides initial support, with

$1.1638-$1.1600 below.

CABLE TECHS: Decline Sees Move Back Toward Base Of Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.3230/40 Nov 10 high, Nov 1 low

*RES 3: $1.3189 Initial low Nov 10, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3162 Hourly base Nov 10, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3135 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: $1.3096 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3062 Nov 13 low

*SUP 2: $1.3027/39 Oct 6, Nov 3 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3005 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2983 76.4% Fibo retrace of $1.2774-$1.3659

*COMMENTARY* A high of $1.3230 on Friday, the rally flattering to deceive and

falling back quickly as a result. The subsequent loss of the key $1.3085-$1.3070

area is now a concern. This sees the base of the range at $1.3027 eventually

becoming vulnerable. Resistance moves to $1.3135, needing back above the latter

to improve in the near term and allow some further recovery. Below $1.3027, the

lower 1% volatility band protects $1.2983-$1.2921.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.75 Break Allows Further Upside Correction

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 3: Y114.34/35 Nov 7 high, 76.4% Fibo Y114.74-Y113.09 

*RES 2: Y114.07/10 Nov 9 high, 61.8% Fibo Y114.74-Y113.09

*RES 1: Y113.91 50% Fibo Y114.74-Y113.09

*PRICE: Y113.70 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y113.22/24 Nov 10, Nov 13 lows

*SUP 3: Y113.09 Nov 9 low

*SUP 4: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*COMMENTARY* Still finding support from within the recent range, the

Y113.22-Y113.09 area now protecting the key Y112.96 support level. The upside

can benefit now from the move through Y113.75 resistance, above which would

allow a higher Y113.91-Y114.34 rise, as we claw back some of the recent losses

from Y114.74. Support from within the range at Y113.40, loss would caution now

and put pressure back on the downside

EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Back Higher After Break Above Y132.74-85 Resistance

*RES 4: Y136.42/47 Swing Y134.50-Y131.40, 16 month res line

*RES 3: Y134.50 Oct 25 high

*RES 2: Y134.23 1.618 swing of Y133.15-Y131.40

*RES 1: Y133.77/81 76.4% of Y134.50-Y131.40, 1% vol band

*PRICE: Y133.23 @1110GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.75/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.57/60 Intraday low, Nov 10 high

*SUP 3: Y132.27 Nov 9 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y131.93 Nov 13 low

*COMMENTARY* Today's rally through Y132.74-Y132.85 resistance, confirms the near

term bias for higher and an assault on the Nov 2 high at Y133.15 and potentially

higher. Through the latter and the Y133.77-Y133.81 area is then the barrier to a

Y134.23-Y134.50 return. Meanwhile, support also on the rise, Y132.85-Y132.75,

ahead of the day's Y132.57 low. Back below the latter would disappoint now.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Continues, Aims For Stg0.8961 Fibo Resistance 

*RES 4: Stg0.9087 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8733

*RES 3: Stg0.9022/32 Oct 20, Oct 12 highs, 2% vol band

*RES 2: Stg0.8975 Oct 24 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8961 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8733

*PRICE: Stg0.8948 @1120GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8900/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8877 Nov 9 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8845/50 Congestion area Nov 8-9

*SUP 4: Stg0.8824 Nov 9 low

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has continued, surpassing both Stg0.8912 and Stg0.8939

resistance. This now leaves Fibo resistance from Stg0.8961 as the main barrier

to a Stg0.9022-Stg0.9032 return. The upper 2% volatility band, also residing at

the latter today. As a result, nearest support jumps to Stg0.8910-Stg0.8900,

with the Nov 9 high at Stg0.8877 now of more consequence below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Holding Above Congested Support In The Lower $1.26's

*RES 4: $1.2856 76.4% Fibo of $1.2917-$1.2666

*RES 3: $1.2820 Nov 7 high, 61.8% of $1.2917-$1.2666

*RES 2: $1.2775/85 Series hourly highs Nov 3, Nov 6, Nov 8

*RES 1: $1.2762 61.8% Fibo of $1.2820-$1.2666

*PRICE: $1.2730 @1125GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2685/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2650/66 1.618 swing $1.2715-$1.2820, Nov 10 low

*SUP 3: $1.2629/34 61.8% of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 25 low

*SUP 4: $1.2600/18 Oct 6 high, 61.8% of $1.2433-$1.2917

*COMMENTARY* The decline found some support on Friday at $1.2666, just ahead of

the swing target at $1.2650. This the beginning of some potentially congested

support from between $1.2634-$1.2600. Only below the latter will free up the

opportunity for a further $1.2547 fall. In the meantime, the move back above

$1.2715-$1.2725 allows for a higher $1.2762-$1.2785 recovery.

GOLD TECHS: Loss Of $1271.8 Support Is A Concern

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1279.8 Nov 13 high

*PRICE: $1273.8 @1132GMT

*SUP 1: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 2: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 3: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*SUP 4: $1254.1 2017 bull channel base

*COMMENTARY* After trying at the back end of last week, the rally was unable to

challenge and clear $1289.9 Fibo resistance. As a result, we have seen a swift

retreat, with today's fall now breaking below the Nov 7 low at $1271.8. Below

here puts the upside momentum gained since the $1265.5 low at the beginning of

the month in jeopardy. Resistance falls in the meantime, $1279.8 now the bar to

any upside recovery. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]