MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Enters Key $1.1952-$1.1966 Resistance Zone

*RES 4: $1.2045 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2034 Sep 20 high

*RES 2: $1.2020 Equality rise from $1.1713 to $1.1554-$1.1861

*RES 1: $1.1966 76.4% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*PRICE: $1.1924 @0938GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1900/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1861 Nov 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1837 Nov 24 low

*SUP 4: $1.1809 Nov 20 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Back above firstly $1.1826 and then $1.1887 were the two positives

gained last week. This sees the potential for an assault on the $1.1952-$1.1966

resistance area next. The former being the 1.618 swing target of the recent

$1.1861-$1.1713 fall. Support as a result, moves up to $1.1910-$1.1900, the old

Nov 15 high at $1.1861 being of more consequence below. Sustained clearance of

$1.1966 will see some congested $1.2020-$1.2045 resistance next.

CABLE TECHS: Reaches Toward Next $1.3374-$1.3384 Resistance Area

*RES 4: $1.3510/17 76.4% $1.3659-$1.3027, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3456 Sep 28 high

*RES 2: $1.3418 61.8% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027

*RES 1: $1.3374/84 1.618 swing $1.3338-$1.3279, 1% vol band

*PRICE: $1.3343 @1005GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3300/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3279/80 Nov 24 low, Nov 20 high

*SUP 3: $1.3245 Congestion area Nov 20-22

*SUP 4: $1.3213 Nov 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Has broken above the top of the recent range and $1.3338-$1.3343

resistance area. This sees $1.3374-$1.3384 as the next target area, a swing of

the recent $1.3338-$1.3279 fall, as well as the current level of the upper 1%

volatility band. in the meantime, $1.3310-$1.3300 provides initial support, with

$1.3279-80 of more importance below. Loss would spoil recent upward momentum.

Through $1.3384 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace at $1.3418 is next on the list.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fall Still Being Held By 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: Y112.30/35 Hourly congestion area Nov 21-22

*RES 3: Y112.17 Nov 21 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y111.89 Nov 17 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y111.69 Nov 24 high

*PRICE: Y111.25 @1011GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.03/07 50% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74, Nov 23 low

*SUP 2: Y110.69 Sep 13 high, 1.618 swing of Y111.07-Y111.69

*SUP 3: Y110.15 61.8% Fibo of Y107.32-Y114.74

*SUP 4: Y109.92 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the decline continue, leaving Y111.89-Y111.65 support

in it's wake. So far, the fall has been arrested, just above the next support of

note, the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y111.03. While contained here, look to that

Y111.69-Y111.89 area to provide resistance but needing back above

Y112.17-Y112.35 to make a real difference. Meanwhile, loss of Y111.03 sees dual

support from Y110.69, ahead of the next Fibo retrace at Y110.15.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recent Range Guided By 1% Volatility Bands

*RES 4: Y134.50 Oct 25 high

*RES 3: Y133.89 Nov 14 high 

*RES 2: Y133.71/77 76.4% of Y134.50-Y131.17, 1% vol band

*RES 1: Y133.24 61.8% of Y134.50-Y131.17, Nov 24 high

*PRICE: Y132.72 @1025GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.45/47 Hourly support, Nov 20 high

*SUP 2: Y132.20 Initial rally high Nov 24, now support

*SUP 3: Y131.65 Congestion area Nov 21-23

*SUP 4: Y131.17/23 Nov 17, Nov 23 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has been trading within a range over the last month that has been

set by the parameters of the 1% volatility bands. The latest rise from above the

50% Fibo retrace level at Y131.03, now has resistance from Y133.24 in the way of

a return to the upper band at Y133.77 by time today and the Nov 14 high at

Y133.89. As a result, support also on the rise, Y132.47-Y132.20 initially, with

Y131.65 currently of more consequence below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Correction Aims To Test Stg0.8974 Fibo Resistance Next

*RES 4: Stg0.9022/32 Oct 20, Oct 12 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high

*RES 2: Stg0.9000 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8974 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.9013-Stg0.8842

*PRICE: Stg0.8937 @1037GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8910/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8893 Nov 24 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8870 Congestion area Nov 21-23

*SUP 4: Stg0.8837/40 Nov 13 low, 61.8% Stg0.8733-Stg0.9013

*COMMENTARY* Found a base above Stg0.8840-Stg0.8837 support early last week,

subsequently correcting losses sustained since the mid month high at Stg0.9013.

The latest rise through Stg0.8949-Stg0.8954, now sees the 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at Stg0.8974 as the next barrier to the recovery. Meanwhile, nearest

support rises to Stg0.8920-Stg0.8910, loss would caution and allow a deeper

Stg0.8893-Stg0.8870 setback. Stg0.9000-Stg0.9013 on break above Stg0.8974.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2666 Loss Would Open Way For Deeper Fall

*RES 4: $1.2837 Nov 21 high

*RES 3: $1.2800/05 Hourly congestion Nov 20-21

*RES 2: $1.2776 Nov 22 high

*RES 1: $1.2748 Nov 24 high

*PRICE: $1.2686 @1043GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2666/73 Nov 10, Nov 23 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2618/24 61.8% of $1.2433-$1.2917, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: $1.2600 Oct 6 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2560 1.618 swing of $1.2666-$1.2837

*COMMENTARY* The recovery from the month's earlier $1.2666 low made it to

$1.2837 last Tuesday, briefly spiking the Nov 7 high and 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at $1.2820 but shy of $1.2860. Has subsequently retreated, the 76.4% Fibo

retrace at 1.2743 giving way, leaving that Nov 10 low at $1.2666 to protect

against a further $1.2618-$1.2560 fall. Meanwhile, $1.2748 now provides

resistance against a $1.2776-$1.2805 recovery.

GOLD TECHS: Continues To Play The Recent $1296.1-$1269.9 Range

*RES 4: $1309.2 50% Fibo of $1357.7-$1260.7

*RES 3: $1306.1 Oct 16 high

*RES 2: $1299.7 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*PRICE: $1293.7 @1050GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.7 Nov 23 low

*SUP 2: $1279.1 Nov 22 low

*SUP 3: $1274.6 Nov 20 low

*SUP 4: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Continues to play the $1296.1-$1269.9 range, looking to find the

vulnerable side. Currently, a move above $1296.1 can be halted around $1299.7,

ahead of more prominent targets at $1306.1-$1309.2. While $1296.1-$1299.7 caps,

then the risk remains for a slide back down the recent range, Thursday's $1285.7

low, then the protection against a further $1279.1-$1274.6 fall, ahead of that

range base at $1269.9.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]