MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Reaction To Support Around $1.1840 Still Key To

Direction

*RES 4: $1.2020 Equality rise from $1.1713 to $1.1554-$1.1861

*RES 3: $1.1961/66 Nov 27 high, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 2: $1.1940 Dec 1 high

*RES 1: $1.1900/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1856 @1008GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1836/40 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1809 Nov 20 high, Nov 30 low

*SUP 3: $1.1773 Initial recovery high Nov 22, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1728 1.618 swing of $1.1809-$1.1940

*COMMENTARY* Found support last Thursday from the Nov 20 high at $1.1809, also a

61.8% retrace of the preceding $1.1713-$1.1961 rise, seen over the latter end of

last month. The subsequent recovery has squeezed back above the near term pivot

at $1.1925 to $1.1940 but as yet without any real conviction. Meanwhile some

overbought hourly conditions are being corrected, $1.1840 now the protection to

$1.1809 again. Above $1.1961-66 needed to prompt a further $1.2020-$1.2055 rise.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3383-$1.3374 To Provide Next Clues To Intraday Direction

*RES 4: $1.3565 1.618x 1.3027-$1.3338 from $1.3062

*RES 3: $1.3550 Dec 1 high

*RES 2: $1.3514/23 Hourly recovery highs Dec 1 

*RES 1: $1.3480/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3425 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3405/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3374/83 Hourly base Nov 29, Nov 27 high

*SUP 3: $1.3336/38 Nov 29 low, Oct 13 high

*SUP 4: $1.3299 76.4% Fibo of $1.3221-$1.3550

*COMMENTARY* Friday's rise, saw a $1.3550 high, just shy of the 1.618 projection

target at $1.3565, before capitulating to some overbought hourly conditions. The

subsequent loss of $1.3460 was the initial warning of a deeper correction to

follow. In this respect, $1.3383-$1.3374 should provide next clues. A loss here

and a further $1.3338-$1.3299 fall is the risk. Resistance from $1.3480-90 and

then $1.3514-23 needs to be reclaimed, to renew upside potential. 

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pace Of Rally Once Again Hampered By Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y114.21 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y113.82/91 76.4% of Y114.74-Y110.84, Nov 14 high

*RES 2: Y113.25/33 61.8% of Y114.74-Y110.84, Nov 16 high

*RES 1: Y113.09 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y112.90 @1035GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.30/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y111.81 Hourly base Dec 1

*SUP 3: Y111.38/40 Nov 29, Dec 1 lows

*SUP 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low

*COMMENTARY* A high of Y112.88 seen earlier on Friday, before collapsing

spectacularly and correcting almost by 76.4% the recovery from last Monday's

Y110.84 low. Then became oversold on the day and the subsequent recovery through

Y112.55 once again switched focus to the topside. The upper 1% volatility band

at Y113.09 is currently hampering progress to the next band of targets between

Y113.25-Y113.91. Support now Y112.40-Y112.30 with Y111.81 below.

EURO-YEN TECHS: 1% Volatility Band In Way Of Renewed Y134.50 Challenge

*RES 4: Y135.39 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y134.50 Oct 25 high

*RES 2: Y134.38 Dec 1 high

*RES 1: Y134.05/07 Hourly resistance, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y133.77 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.20/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.92 Dec 1 low

*SUP 3: Y132.65 Nov 30 low

*SUP 4: Y132.39 Initial rally high Nov 29, now support

*COMMENTARY* Broke above the most recent range top at Y133.89 on Friday and then

made a beeline straight towards the Oct 25 high and major range top at 134.50. A

high of Y134.38, before submitting to some heavily overbought hourly conditions

and a Y132.92 setback. Will need to regain levels back above Y134.07, the upper

1% volatility band, before once again being in a position to challenge Y134.50.

Support meanwhile rises to Y133.35-Y133.20.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8747-Stg0.8761 In Way Of Better Recovery

*RES 4: Stg0.8900 Hourly low Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8880 Hourly recovery high Nov 28

*RES 2: Stg0.8855/61 Hourly resistance, recovery high Nov 29

*RES 1: Stg0.8845/47 Dec 1 high, Nov 28 low

*PRICE: Stg0.8825 @1053GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8776 1% volatility band, Dec 1 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8756 1.618 swing of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8981

*SUP 3: Stg0.8745 Equality from 0.8880 to 0.8982-0.0.8847

*SUP 4: Stg0.8733 Nov 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found a base at Stg0.8776 last Thursday, at the beginning of some

congested support levels from between there and Stg0.8733, the Nov 1 low. The

resultant rally aided by some near term oversold conditions, now sees resistance

from Stg0.8847-Stg0.8861 as barring the way to any better correction of losses

from last Tuesday's Stg0.8982 peak, with Stg0.8880 then the brake to a

Stg0.8900-Stg0.8933 rise.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Collapses After Reaching $1.2909-$1.2938 Area

*RES 4: $1.2855 Initial pullback low Dec 1

*RES 3: $1.2837 Nov 21 high

*RES 2: $1.2804 Hourly low Nov 29, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2745/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2686 @1100GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2666/73 Nov 10, Nov 23 lows

*SUP 2: $1.2648 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2614/18 Oct 23 low, 61.8% of $1.2433-$1.2917

*SUP 4: $1.2600 Oct 6 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The congested $1.2909-$1.2938 area proved a bridge too far for the

recovery. The first sign of weakness was the slip back below $1.2837, this

suggested that we were ready for a correction of gains from at least last week's

$1.2673 low. The further loss of $1.2715 then caused further concerns, once

again exposing the $1.2673-$1.2666 area. Loss would switch focus back on

$1.2600-$1.2547. Back above $1.2745-50 needed to provide some relief.

GOLD TECHS: Overall Focus Returns To Key Support Between $1262.3-$1260.7

*RES 4: $1299.3 Nov 27 high

*RES 3: $1292.5 Hourly base Nov 27, now resistance

*RES 2: $1289.3 Dec 1 high

*RES 1: $1285.0 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1273.7 @1107GMT

*SUP 1: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 2: $1262.3 2017 bull channel support line

*SUP 3: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*SUP 4: $1240.9 76.4% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make a break through the top of the recent range, being

capped by $1299.3-$1299.7 resistance. The subsequent fall back within the range

has been swift, leaving $1269.9 as the protection to the 2017 bull channel base

at $1262.3 and the Oct 2 low at $1260.7. Have to hold the latter or overall bias

will swing back to the downside and further corrections of gains initially from

$1204.8 and potentially from $1122.6. Resistance $1285.0-$1292.5.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]