MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Break Above $1.1815 Allows Correction To Begin

*RES 4: $1.1926 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.1903 76.4% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717

*RES 2: $1.1868 61.8% Fibo of $1.1961-$1.1717

*RES 1: $1.1848 Dec 6 high

*PRICE: $1.1821 @1020GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1780/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1763 Initial recovery high Dec 13, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1709/13 61.8% of $1.1554-$1.1961, Nov 21 low

*SUP 4: $1.1690/94 1% vol, 1.618x 1.1961-$1.1809 from $1.1940

*COMMENTARY* Continued to find support from above $1.1713-$1.1709 this week and

the subsequent recovery through $1.1793-$1.1815 has allowed a correction of the

fall seen since the Nov 27 high at $1.1961. This has now reached towards the Dec

6 high at $1.1848, before encountering some near term overbought conditions.

This sees $1.1790-$1.1763 as support, back below the latter will disappoint now.

Above $1.1848 and look to $1.1868-$1.1903 next.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Reaches Pivotal $1.3460-$1.3470 Area

*RES 4: $1.3550 Dec 1 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3521 Dec 8 high

*RES 2: $1.3492 76.4% Fibo of $1.3550-$1.3303

*RES 1: $1.3460/70 Pivotal highs/lows early December

*PRICE: $1.3422 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3395/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3375 Hourly base Dec 13

*SUP 3: $1.3340/45 Hourly congestion area Dec 13

*SUP 4: $1.3298/03 76.4% of $1.3221-$1.3549, Dec 12 low

*COMMENTARY* Support from above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3298 remained

intact over the early part of the week. A low of $1.3303 on Tuesday, before

finding the ability to rally back above $1.3381-$1.3408 late on Wednesday. This

has subsequently seen a rise back into the pivotal $1.3460-$1.3470 area but

likely needing a further move through $1.3492 before being in a position to

revisit $1.3521-$1.3550. Nearest support meanwhile, rises to $1.3400-$1.3375.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Correction Underway After Failure Below Y113.82

*RES 4: Y114.24/34 Equality rise from Y111.99, Nov 7 high

*RES 3: Y113.75/82 Dec 12 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y114.74-Y110.84

*RES 2: Y113.46 Hourly recovery high Dec 13

*RES 1: Y112.95/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y112.66 @1250GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.46/55 Dec 13 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Y112.30/38 50% Y110.84-Y113.75, initial high Dec 6

*SUP 3: Y111.95/99 61.8% Fibo of Y110.84-Y113.75, Dec 6 low

*SUP 4: Y111.83 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to make an impression on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

Y113.82. Tuesday's rally pulling up shy at Y113.75. The subsequent fall and

break below Y113.13-Y113.09, has allowed some correction of the most recent rise

from the Dec 6 low at Y111.99. This has Y112.55-Y112.46 currently protecting

against a further Y112.38-Y111.95 fall. In the interim, resistance from

Y112.95-Y113.05 but likely requiring a move back through Y113.46 for impact.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Y133.88 Remains The Bar To Further Gains

*RES 4: Y134.50/70 Oct 25 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Y134.38 Dec 1 high

*RES 2: Y133.88/89 76.4% of Y134.38-Y132.26, Dec 11 high

*RES 1: Y133.51/65 Dec 13 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y133.29 @1256GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y132.85 Dec 13 low

*SUP 3: Y132.55 Hourly congestion area Dec 6

*SUP 4: Y132.26 Dec 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support at Y132.26 last week, then subsequently moving back

up the Y134.50-Y131.17 range, that has been in existence for the last 3 months.

The 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y133.88 is the next potential barrier to gains,

Y134.38 higher. In the interim, support now comes from Y133.00, loss would

trigger a deeper correction of that rise from Y132.26, with Y132.85-Y132.55

below. In the meantime, Y133.51-Y133.65 provides near term resistance.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8850-54 Resistance Remains Key To Direction

*RES 4: Stg0.8915 Hourly base Nov 28, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8880/87 Hourly high Nov 28, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8868 Dec 5 high 

*RES 1: Stg0.8850/54 Dec 7, Dec 6 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8807 @1301GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8773 Dec 11 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8745/50 Minor hourly congestion Dec 7-8

*SUP 3: Stg0.8725 Initial high Dec 8, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8687/89 1.618 swing 0.8756-0.8868, Dec 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fate of a continued recovery is firmly in the hands of

Stg0.8850-Stg0.8854 resistance. Will need to cross back above here, if the

correction of losses from the late November high at Stg0.8982 is to continue,

with Stg0.8868-Stg0.8880 again expected to feature higher, with the upper 1%

volatility band at the slightly higher Stg0.8887. Support from Stg0.8773, loss

would caution and send us back down the recent range.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Corrects By 38.2% As $1.2893 Resistance Caps Again

*RES 4: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% $1.3794-$1.2061, 1% vol

*RES 2: $1.2893 Hourly recovery high Dec 1, Dec 12 high

*RES 1: $1.2865/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2833 @1315GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2790/92 38.2% of $1.2624-$1.2893, Dec 13 low

*SUP 2: $1.2758 50% Fibo of $1.2624-$1.2893

*SUP 3: $1.2727 61.8% Fibo of $1.2624-$1.2893, Dec 4 high

*SUP 4: $1.2670/87 1% volatility band, 76.4% Fibo retrace

*COMMENTARY* Has found $1.2893 resistance too strong as yet, to mount another

challenge to the key $1.2917-$1.2927 area. As a result, we have seen a small

pullback so far, which has reached towards the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at

$1.2790. This of the recent rise from the month's $1.2624 low. Will need to see

gains back above $1.2865-$1.2870 to currently remove the threat of a continued

correction, with $1.2758-$1.2721 then the next region of support.

GOLD TECHS: Heavily Oversold Conditions Assist In Near Term Recovery

*RES 4: $1275.3 61.8% Fibo of $1299.3-$1236.6

*RES 3: $1270.4 Nov 30 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1265.1 Underside broken 2017 bull channel

*RES 1: $1260.7 Oct 6 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1257.4 @1325GMT

*SUP 1: $1245.4 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1232.6 1.618 swing of $1260.7-$1306.1

*SUP 4: $1230.9 1.618x $1306.1-$1263.8 from $1299.3

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1236.6 on Tuesday, above the next targeted support area

from between $1232.6-$1230.9. The subsequent bounce, aided by some heavily

oversold conditions as a result of this month's decline from $1299.3, now faces

resistance from $1260.7, ahead of a return towards the base of the broken 2017

bull channel at $1265.1. Will need back above the latter before any real upside

interest will appear. Nearest support in the meantime, rises to $1245.4.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]