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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Retreat Continues, Watching $1.2340-$1.2301 Support
*RES 4: $1.2556 Feb 16 high
*RES 3: $1.2511 Feb 15 high
*RES 2: $1.2450 Hourly congestion Feb 14-16
*RES 1: $1.2416 Hourly recovery high Feb 19
*PRICE: $1.2356 @0925GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2340/45 Hourly basing area Feb 13-14
*SUP 2: $1.2301 3 month bull channel base
*SUP 3: $1.2276 Feb 14 low
*SUP 4: $1.2234 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* $1.2556 was enough for last week, unable to go on and test the
61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.2598. As a result, has bowed to some overbought
hourly conditions and begun a pullback and some correction of gains seen since
the $1.2206 low from Feb 9. In this respect, with $1.2380 now lost, the next
area of support becomes $1.2340-$1.2301. The latter the 3 month bull channel
base. Meanwhile, $1.2416-$1.2450 are now nearest resistance.
CABLE TECHS: Continued Fall Looks To $1.3925-$1.3902 For Next Guidance
*RES 4: $1.4145 Feb 16 high, 4 week falling res line
*RES 3: $1.4110/15 Hourly basing area Feb 16, now res'tce
*RES 2: $1.4050 Feb 19 high
*RES 1: $1.4000/20 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3960 @0940GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3921/25 Feb 13 high, hourly high Feb 14
*SUP 2: $1.3902/10 Equality fall tgt, 61.8% $1.3765-$1.4145
*SUP 3: $1.3876 Feb 12 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.3855 76.4% Fibo of $1.3765-$1.4145
*COMMENTARY* Still falling after losing the confrontation with resistance from
the Feb 5 high at $1.4151 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.4158 last week.
Could only manage a $1.4145 high, before accepting some correction of recent
gains. In this respect and with yesterday's loss of $1.4000, now looking at the
prospect of a further $1.3925-$1.3902 fall. Resistance dips to $1.4000-$1.4020
but likely requires back above $1.4050 for real assistance.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Continues It's Near Term Recovery
*RES 4: Y108.28 Jan 26 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y108.05 Feb 9 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y107.55/65 Congestion area Feb 13-14
*RES 1: Y107.17/21 Hourly highs Feb 14, intraday high
*PRICE: Y107.18 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.60/65 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y106.35/45 Hourly lows/highs Feb 16-19
*SUP 3: Y105.92 Hourly base Feb 16 
*SUP 4: Y105.44/55 Jan 2014, Oct 3 2016 highs, Feb 16 low
*COMMENTARY* The recovery continues, moving us safely away from the lower 2%
volatility band, which out of interest is at Y105.44 by time today. Now needing
to clear Y107.17-Y107.21 before the next leg higher towards Y107.55-Y107.65 can
kick in. Main resistance to this rise will likely be seen from two recent
Y108.05-Y108.28 lows. In the interim, support moves up to Y106.65-Y106.60 but
more important from the lower Y106.45-Y106.35 area.
EURO-YEN TECHS: No Change While 132.52-132.60 Continues To Cap Rallies
*RES 4: Y133.80/86 Feb 12 high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y131.61
*RES 3: Y133.39 Feb 14 high 
*RES 2: Y133.11 Feb 16 high 
*RES 1: Y132.52/60 Feb 15 low, hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y132.33 @0958GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.81 Feb 16 low
*SUP 2: Y131.61 Feb 14 low
*SUP 3: Y131.45 Hourly support
*SUP 4: Y131.17 Nov 17 low
*COMMENTARY* The lower 2% volatility band came under pressure last Wednesday. A
low of Y131.61, before the weight of some heavily oversold hourly conditions
came to the near term rescue. The resultant lift faltered at Y133.39 and has
subsequently lost ground again since. Y132.52-Y132.60 and then Y133.11 now in
the way of a fresh attempt higher. Meanwhile, support from Y131.81 now protects
against a Y131.61-Y131.45 return and possibly a further Y131.17 fall.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback From Recent Range Top Continues Today
*RES 4: Stg0.8920/26 Feb 14, Jan 12 highs
*RES 3: Stg0.8890 Feb 16 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8870/75 Feb 19 high, Feb 14 low
*RES 1: Stg0.8845/55 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8815 @1010GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8805 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920
*SUP 2: Stg0.8776/79 76.4% of Stg0.8732-Stg0.8920, Feb 9 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8766 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.8732/42 Feb 8 low, 76.4% of Stg0.8687-Stg0.8920
*COMMENTARY* Continues to lose ground following the failure to deal with range
top resistance at Stg0.8926 last week. Today's loss of Stg0.8843-Stg0.8841
support now sees the first of two dual Fibo support levels at Stg0.8805 as the
next potential target. Any lower and the second dual support from Stg0.8776 then
comes into play. Meanwhile, Stg0.8845-Stg0.8855 becomes resistance,
Stg0.8870-Stg0.8875 currently more important above.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7893-$0.7890 Still Key Support And Clue To Direction
*RES 4: $0.8041/47 Feb 2 high, 76.4% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759
*RES 3: $0.7987/92 Feb 1 low, 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7759
*RES 2: $0.7966 Feb 15 high
*RES 1: $0.7936/40 Feb 19 high, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7893 @1015GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7890/93 Initial high Feb 14, Feb 15-16 lows
*SUP 2: $0.7877 Feb 13 high, now support
*SUP 3: $0.7845 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 13 
*SUP 4: $0.7810/15 Hourly basing area Feb 9-Feb 12
*COMMENTARY* The inability to deal with $0.7936-$0.7940 resistance over the last
couple of days has seen risk return lower and pressure once more on
$0.7893-$0.7890 support. A further loss here will open up deeper corrective
opportunities of recent $0.7759-$0.7989 gains. The Feb 13 high at $0.7877 then
the brake to a deeper $0.7845-$0.7810 fall. Move through that $0.7936-$0.7940
area needed to alleviate pressure.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2605 Break Needed To Continue
*RES 4: $1.2686/89 1% volatility band, Feb 9 high
*RES 3: $1.2650 Feb 14 high
*RES 2: $1.2623/25 Feb 12-Feb 13 highs
*RES 1: $1.2600/05 Congestion area Feb 12-Feb 14
*PRICE: $1.2597 @1028GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2545/55 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2523/28 Hourly base Feb 16, Feb 19 low
*SUP 3: $1.2475 Hourly congestion Feb 15-16
*SUP 4: $1.2450 Feb 16 low
*COMMENTARY* The bearish 'Doji' candle close on Feb 9 has produced a
$1.2689-$1.2450 setback so far, before some near term oversold conditions have
appeared and allowed some recovery. The latest rise now sees $1.2600-$1.2605 as
the next barrier to cross before the chance of a better $1.2623-$1.2650 rally.
Meanwhile, $1.2555-$1.2523 provides a decent near term support pillow, only
below the latter will concern again. Main resistance still $1.2686-$1.2689.
GOLD TECHS: Correction Of This Month's Gains Continues
*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high
*RES 3: $1361.8 Feb 16 high
*RES 2: $1351.6 Feb 19 high
*RES 1: $1344.9 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1337.5 @1038GMT
*SUP 1: $1333.1 Feb 13 high, now support
*SUP 2: $1327.8 Feb 12 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1318.1 Feb 14 low
*SUP 4: $1307.1 Feb 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable to find the ability to retest the year's $1366.2 high and
has been gradually suffering since. The latest fall back beneath $1344.9 allows
some further correction of recent gains from this month's $1307.1 base. In this
respect two recent $1333.1-$1327.8 highs now offer some support, with the lower
$1318.1 level currently of more consequence. Resistance $1344.9-$1351.6 back
above the latter needed to revive upside interest. 
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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