MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2418-$1.2424 Next After Break Above $1.2365

*RES 4: $1.2479 Equality rise from $1.2269 to $1.2155-$1.2363

*RES 3: $1.2461 76.4% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.2155

*RES 2: $1.2433 Underside broken bull channel base

*RES 1: $1.2418/24 1% vol band, swing of $1.2365-$1.2269

*PRICE: $1.2400 @1335GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2360/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2328 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2300/05 Hourly basing area Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 4: $1.2269 Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* Bounced last week from a combination of the lower 1% volatility

band and a 38.2% Fibo retrace level. The subsequent recovery has now negotiated

the previously troublesome $1.2365 resistance. Through here should allow a move

up into the next area of note between $1.2418-$1.2424. The current level of the

upper 1% volatility band and the swing target of the most recent $1.2365-$1.2269

fall. In the interim, $1.2360-65 and then the day's $1.2328 low provide support.

CABLE TECHS: Above Feb 26 Low At $1.3928 Needed To Continue Gains

*RES 4: $1.4017 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3984/97 5 week falling res line, Feb 27 high

*RES 2: $1.3954 38.2% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 1: $1.3928/30 Feb 26 low, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3903 @1340GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3850/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3817 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.3790/95 Hourly congestion Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 4: $1.3756 Mar 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered near term since last Thursday's dip to $1.3712.

Monday saw further progress through recent 1.3817 highs and the Feb 22 low at

$1.3857, to reach $1.3877. Today's move through $1.3890 now has the Feb 26 low

at $1.3928 as the next bar to increased $1.3954-$1.3997 gains. As a result,

support also on the rise, $1.3850 and the the day's $1.3817 low now forming

nearest downside protection.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.46-Y106.55 The Next Obstacle To Recovery

*RES 4: Y107.20/28 Mar 1 high, 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25

*RES 3: Y107.11 2 month falling resistance line

*RES 2: Y106.74 76.4% Fibo of Y107.20-Y105.25

*RES 1: Y106.46/55 61.8% Y107.20-Y105.25, initial low Mar 1

*PRICE: Y106.24 @1345GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.70/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.50 Congestion area Mar 2-Mar 5, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Y105.25 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: Y104.53 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Had continued to lose ground since last Monday's Y107.68 high. The

subsequent loss of the previous Y105.55 low reached Y105.25 last Friday, before

finding some near term respite from some oversold hourly conditions. With the

move above Y106.00, now has Y106.46-Y106.55 in the way of further gains and

better recovery of some of those losses. As a consequence, support rises to

Y105.75-Y105.50, loss of the latter would swing bias lower again.

EURO-YEN TECHS: New Low But Higher Close Creates Bullish 'Outside' Day

*RES 4: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y132.47 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y129.35, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Y132.14/19 1.618 swing Y131.55-Y130.60, Feb 27 high

*RES 1: Y132.02 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y131.64 @1352GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.35/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.95 Initial intraday recovery high, now support

*SUP 3: Y130.53/60 Mar 2 high, intraday low

*SUP 4: Y130.27 Initial rally high Mar 5, now support

*COMMENTARY* Fresh fall Monday saw a low of Y129.35, before finding support on

the back of near term oversold conditions. With the close above Friday's Y130.53

high, this has created a potentially bullish 'outside' day on the daily chart.

Having now cleared Y131.55 this recovery can see a greater Y132.14-Y132.19 rise

next, as we correct this year's losses from Y137.51. Support Y131.35-Y130.95,

back below would take the sting out of this latest rise.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Fibo Retrace At Stg0.8951 Caps, Watching Stg0.8883-85

*RES 4: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771

*RES 3: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8951 Mar 2 high, 76.4% of Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687

*RES 1: Stg0.8937 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Stg0.8922 @1355GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8883/85 Hourly base Mar 1, Mar 5 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8837 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8815 Initial rally high Feb 26, now support

*COMMENTARY* Have recently seen a move through the range top at Stg0.8920-26. So

far, this has been halted at Stg0.8951, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level of the

Stg0.9032-Stg0.8687 fall seen since the beginning of October last year. Will

need to maintain a break through here, before the potential for a higher

Stg0.8981-Stg0.9013 rise will occur. In the meantime, Stg0.8905 support has been

lost and suggests scope for some deeper correction of recent gains.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7851-$0.7877 Next Target Area After $0.7794 Break

*RES 4: $0.7924 50% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 3: $0.7893 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $0.7875/77 38.2% of $0.8136-$0.7713, 1% vol band

*RES 1: $0.7851 76.4% Fibo of $0.7893-$0.7713

*PRICE: $0.7823 @1401GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7790/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7771/74 Mar 2, Mar 5 highs, now support

*SUP 3: $0.7756 Intraday low

*SUP 4: $0.7738 Mar 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up aided by some near term oversold conditions. This

keeps us above the lower 1% volatility band, also at $0.7713 today and with the

added emphasis of a 0.7794 break, now enables a further $0.7851-$0.7877 rise.

Support comes initially from $0.7790-$0.7771, although the day's $0.7756 low

currently provides a stronger level below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Near Term Direction Revolves Around $1.2869-$1.2854

*RES 4: $1.3109 Equality rise from $1.2249 to $1.2061-$1.2921

*RES 3: $1.3085 6 month bull channel top projection

*RES 2: $1.3060 2% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.3002 Mar 5 high

*PRICE: $1.2899 @1410GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2869 Hourly base Mar 2

*SUP 2: $1.2854 38.2% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 3: $1.2809 Mar 1 low, 50% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 4: $1.2758/63 Feb 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*COMMENTARY* Blasted through the previous $1.2921 high and also the equality

rise target at $1.2948 on Monday. A high of $1.3002 so far but any higher and

there is currently not much resistance of note until the upper 2% volatility

band at the higher $1.3060 level and the 6 month channel top at $1.3085.

Meanwhile, $1.2916 support has been lost, eyes now on $1.2869-$1.2854, as this

area now protects against a deeper fall and correction of gains from $1.2615.

GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 2: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 1: $1332.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1332.0 @1412GMT

*SUP 1: $1317.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1307.1 Feb 8 low 

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 last Thursday, just ahead of the 50% Fibo

retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. The

subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially bullish

'Doji' candle close on the daily chart last Thursday. Next resistance comes from

$1332.1, through here will allow a better $1341.1-$1351.6 rise. Above the latter

then needed to reinvigorate the upside. Nearest support $1317.5-$1307.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]