MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2447-$1.2479 The Bar To A Return To The Year's High

*RES 4: $1.2556 Feb 16 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2479 Equality rise from $1.2269 to $1.2155-$1.2363

*RES 2: $1.2461 76.4% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.2155

*RES 1: $1.2447 Underside broken bull channel base, 1% vol

*PRICE: $1.2426 @0955GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2365 Mar 2 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2328 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.2300/05 Hourly basing area Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 4: $1.2269 Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued it's recovery, the latest move above the swing target

at $1.2424 now bringing the upper 1% volatility band and the base of the

previously broken bull channel base at $1.2447, into focus next. Through here

and still have to contend with the $1.2461-$1.2479 area however, before the way

becomes clear for a return to the year's $1.2556 high. Support meanwhile, comes

from above last Friday's $1.2365 high, loss would caution in the near term.

CABLE TECHS: Slips After Failure To Deal With $1.3928-$1.3930

*RES 4: $1.4011 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3979/97 5 week falling res line, Feb 27 high

*RES 2: $1.3954 38.2% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 1: $1.3928/30 Feb 26 low, Mar 6 high

*PRICE: $1.3867 @1003GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3847 76.4% Fibo of $1.3817-$1.3930

*SUP 2: $1.3817 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.3790/95 Hourly congestion Mar 2-Mar 5

*SUP 4: $1.3756 Mar 2 low

*COMMENTARY* *Unable to penetrate the $1.3928-$1.3930 resistance area and has

bowed to some near term pressure from overbought hourly conditions. This has so

far resulted in a dip to the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3847. This of the most

recent rise from $1.3817. The latter and then $1.3790 then provide the next area

of support on any slip lower but the Mar 2 low at $1.3756 is of more importance.

Above $1.3930 and congested $1.3954-$1.3997 resistance awaits higher.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Pressure Returns To Y105.36-Y105.25 Support

*RES 4: Y106.74 76.4% Fibo of Y107.20-Y105.25

*RES 3: Y106.46/55 61.8% Y107.20-Y105.25, initial low Mar 1

*RES 2: Y106.26 Hourly recovery high Mar 6

*RES 1: Y105.87/91 Intraday high, initial basing area Mar 6

*PRICE: Y105.65 @1020GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.36/46 1% vol band, Mar 6 low

*SUP 2: Y105.25 Mar 2 low

*SUP 3: Y104.50 1.618 swing of Y105.25-Y106.46

*SUP 4: Y104.30 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The recovery seemingly ran out of steam at Y106.46 on Tuesday and

has lost ground ever since. The congested Y105.50 area has since come under

assault, leaving the lower 1% volatility band, at Y105.36 today and last

Friday's Y105.25 low vulnerable below. As a result, resistance falls to

Y105.87-Y105.91 but likely requires a move back above Y106.26 for any real

respite. Lose Y105.25 and not much currently evident until Y104.50-Y104.30.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Confusion Reigns As Conflicting Signals Appear

*RES 4: Y132.34/47 1% vol band, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y129.35

*RES 3: Y132.02 Mar 6 high

*RES 2: Y131.78 Hourly recovery high Mar 6

*RES 1: Y131.44 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y131.41 @1034GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.95 Initial recovery high Mar 6, now support

*SUP 2: Y130.53/60 Mar 2 high, Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: Y130.27 Initial rally high Mar 5, now support

*SUP 4: Y129.95/00 Congestion area Feb 28-Mar 5

*COMMENTARY* Monday's bullish 'outside day' resulted in a Y132.02 rise, before

meeting resistance from some overbought conditions. The subsequent lower close

has now seen the appearance of a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle at Tuesday's

close. Now looking to support from Y130.95 and then the Y130.60-Y130.53 area for

next clues. Have to hold above the latter or risk returns lower. Meanwhile, the

day's Y131.44 high and then Y131.78 provide resistance.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Threatens The Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.9087 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.9306-Stg0.8687

*RES 3: Stg0.9032 Oct 12 high

*RES 2: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771

*RES 1: Stg0.8981 Nov 28 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8960 @1045GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8905/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8885 Mar 5 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8864 Feb 22 high, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8844 Feb 27 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Have broken above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8951 today

and the upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.8965 is also being challenged. Clearly

sustained move through here will have the Nov 28 high at Stg0.8981 in its sights

next, ahead of stronger resistance from Stg0.9013. In the interim, support comes

from above Stg0.8915-Stg0.8905. A loss of the latter would caution and weaken

the immediate upside argument.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7851-$0.7877 Next Target Area After $0.7794 Break

*RES 4: $0.7893 Feb 26 high

*RES 3: $0.7875/77 38.2% of $0.8136-$0.7713, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $0.7843/51 Mar 6 high, 76.4% of $0.7893-$0.7713

*RES 1: $0.7829 Hourly recovery high Mar 6

*PRICE: $0.7816 @1050GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7771/74 Mar 2, Mar 5 highs, now support

*SUP 2: $0.7756 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: $0.7738 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: $0.7713/19 Mar 1 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up aided by some near term oversold conditions. This

keeps us above the lower 1% volatility band, at $0.7719 today and with the added

emphasis of a 0.7794 break, now suggest a further $0.7851-$0.7877 rise. Support

comes initially from above $0.7771, although Tuesday's $0.7756 low currently

provides a stronger level below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Near Term Direction Still Revolves Around 1.2854

*RES 4: $1.3109 Equality rise from $1.2249 to $1.2061-$1.2921

*RES 3: $1.3080/87 2% vol band, 6 month bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.3002 Mar 5 high

*RES 1: $1.2965/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2924 @1055GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2885 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2854/62 38.2% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002, Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: $1.2809 Mar 1 low, 50% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 4: $1.2758/63 Feb 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*COMMENTARY* Unable to move with any conviction above $1.3000 as yet. The

subsequent pullback meeting support from above the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at

$1.2854. This of the gains seen since the Feb 26 low at $1.2615. As a result

there is now resistance from between $1.2965-$1.2970 preventing another

challenge to $1.3000 and perhaps the higher $1.3080-$1.3109 region. Loss of

$1.2854 would caution and open up a deeper $1.2809-$1.2763 fall.

GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 2: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 1: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*PRICE: $1333.0 @1101GMT

*SUP 1: $1327.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1321.2 Mar 1 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 last Thursday, just ahead of the 50% Fibo

retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. The

subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially bullish

'Doji' candle close on the daily chart last Thursday. Yesterday's move back

above $1332.1, now allows the chance of a better $1341.1-$1351.6 rise. Above the

latter then needed to reinvigorate the upside. Nearest support $1327.9-$1321.2.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]