MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Falters On Initial Foray To $1.2410 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2513 Underside broken 4 month bull channel base

*RES 3: $1.2461/71 76.4% of $1.2556-$1.2155, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $1.2446 Mar 7, Mar 8 highs

*RES 1: $1.2410/13 Congestion area Mar 7-Mar 8, i'day high

*PRICE: $1.2373 @0840GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2334/46 Mar 9, Mar 12 highs, now support

*SUP 2: $1.2305/14 Congestion Mar 8-12, Mar 13 low

*SUP 3: $1.2291 Mar 12 low

*SUP 4: $1.2266/69 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The combination of the upper 1% volatility band and the base of the

previously broken 4 month bull channel, proved a bridge too far last week. A

dual $1.2446 high before succumbing to downside pressure, heightened by the loss

of $1.2365 support. A low of $1.2273 seen, just ahead of the 61.8% retrace level

at $1.2266, this of recent gains from $1.2155. Meanwhile, with yesterday's move

above $1.2345 the focus switches to $1.2410-$1.2413 for next clues.

CABLE TECHS: Retreats After Move Toward Next $1.3997-$1.4029 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 3: $1.4070 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1.4021/29 1.618 swing $1.3930-$1.3782, 50% Fibo 

*RES 1: $1.3997/00 Feb 27 high, equality rise from $1.3782

*PRICE: $1.3956 @0843GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3905/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3875 Mar 13 low

*SUP 3: $1.3841 Mar 12 low, hourly base Mar 9

*SUP 4: $1.3817 Mar 6 low

*COMMENTARY* $1.3928-$1.3930 resistance capped last week and subsequently bowed

to some pressure from overbought hourly conditions. This saw $1.3847-$1.3817

support give way, although the fall remained above the key $1.3763-$1.3756 area.

Meanwhile, with yesterday's move back above the congested $1.3913-$1.3954 area,

this now sees $1.3997-$1.4000 as next resistance, ahead of the potential

$1.4021-$1.4029 target area. Support now $1.3920-$1.3905.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Stalls On Reaching Y107.28-Y107.30 Resistance

*RES 4: Y107.68 Feb 27 high

*RES 3: Y107.68 Feb 27 high

*RES 2: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high

*RES 1: Y106.95/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y106.62 @0854GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.19/25 2018 falling res line, Mar 13 low

*SUP 2: Y106.00/05 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 8

*SUP 3: Y105.70/75 Hourly lows/highs Mar 2-Mar 7

*SUP 4: Y105.46 Mar 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a break above the 2018 falling resistance line.

Tuesday's move through Y107.05 has faltered at the next resistance of note

between Y107.28-Y107.31, an area which includes the upper 1% volatility band

today. Will need above the latter before confidence in a greater Y107.68-Y107.91

recovery will grow. In the interim, Y106.25-Y106.19  provides initial support,

with Y106.05-Y105.87 of more importance below.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Consolidation Break Halted By 38.2% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y133.19 Equality rise from Y130.52 to Y132.02-Y129.35

*RES 3: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 2: Y132.95 1.618 swing of Y132.02-Y130.52

*RES 1: Y132.44/47 Mar 13 high, 38.2% Y137.51-Y129.35, 1% vol

*PRICE: Y131.90 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.55/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.25/30 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 12

*SUP 3: Y130.92/97 Hourly base Mar 6, Mar 12 low

*SUP 4: Y130.52 Mar 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's bullish 'outside day' resulted in a Y132.02 rise,

before meeting resistance. The subsequent lower close then saw the appearance of

a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle at Tuesday's close. Yesterday's move back

above Y132.02 seemingly negates this but has been capped by the 38.2% Fibo

retrace level and upper 1% volatility band at Y132.47. Support comes from

Y131.70-Y131.25 and should hold here, if the rally is to continue at this stage.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Finds Near Term Support From Above Feb 27 High At Stg0.8844

*RES 4: Stg0.8981/88 Nov 28 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8968 Mar 7 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8925/40 Hourly highs Mar 8, Mar 5

*RES 1: Stg0.8895/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8867 @0906GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8844/50 Feb 27 high, Mar 12 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8815/20 Hourly congestion Feb 26-Feb 27

*SUP 3: Stg0.8810 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8771 Feb 26 low

*COMMENTARY* It seems that we were not quite ready for a challenge to the top of

the congested trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, let alone a

break out. The failure below Stg0.8981-Stg0.9032 last week, has seen a return

into the recent range. Near term support from Stg0.8875-Stg0.8870 has been lost

and opens the way for a deeper Stg0.8844-Stg0.8815 fall. Meanwhile,

Stg0.8895-Stg0.8900 currently bars the way higher again.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Reaches 1% volatility Band, $0.7924 Next Test Higher

*RES 4: $0.7989 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $0.7974 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713, 2% vol band

*RES 2: $0.7924 76.4% $0.7989-$0.7713, 50% $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 1: $0.7893/98 1% volatility band, Mar 13 high

*PRICE: $0.7888 @0916GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7820/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7795 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 9

*SUP 3: $0.7772/73 Mar 7-Mar 8 lows

*SUP 4: $0.7750/55 Congestion area Mar 1-Mar 5

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up again. This kept us above the lower 1% volatility

band and with the added emphasis of a 0.7794 break, have seen a test to $0.7898,

just through the upper 1% volatility band. Through here and $0.7924 becomes the

next test to the rally. Support comes initially from above $0.7830-$0.7795,

although the $0.7773-$0.7772 area currently provides a stronger level below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2961 Break Can Portend Fresh $1.3000 Challenge

*RES 4: $1.3096 6 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3030 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3001/02 Mar 6, Mar 5 highs

*RES 1: $1.2985 Mar 13 high

*PRICE: $1.2944 @0926GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2910/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2877 Initial rally high Mar 13, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2845 Hourly congestion highs Mar 12-13

*SUP 4: $1.2803/09 Mar 12 low, 50% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*COMMENTARY* Had two attempts earlier in the month to move through $1.3000

without success. The subsequent pullback broke below support from the 38.2% Fibo

retrace level at $1.2854, this of the gains seen since the Feb 26 low at $1.2615

but was held at the top of the next deeper correction area between

$1.2809-$1.2763. Meanwhile, the move back above $1.2909-$1.2961 encourages for

another go at $1.3000 and perhaps $1.3030-$1.3096. Support $1.2915-$1.2877.

GOLD TECHS: $1334.1-$1341.1 The Bar To Further Upside Progress

*RES 4: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 3: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 1: $1330.1 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1325.5 @0933GMT

*SUP 1: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 2: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to find support from above $1311.2 over the course of

the last week, keeping the key near term support from the 50% Fibo retrace level

at $1301.4 intact for the time being. The recovery is still being aided by the

appearance of a potentially bullish 'Doji' candle close on Mar 1. To capitalise

on this, will need to navigate a way through $1334.1-$1341.1 resistance, before

any real upside impetus will be found.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]