MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Attention Switches To $1.2314-$1.2291 Support

*RES 4: $1.2461/81 76.4% of $1.2556-$1.2155, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $1.2446 Mar 7, Mar 8 highs

*RES 2: $1.2410/13 Congestion area Mar 7-Mar 8, Mar 14 high

*RES 1: $1.2384 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2344 @1443GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2305/14 Congestion Mar 8-12, Mar 13 low

*SUP 2: $1.2291 Mar 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2266/69 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 5 low

*SUP 4: $1.2231 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The failure to cope with $1.2410-$1.2413 resistance yesterday has

resulted in a fall below $1.2346-$1.2334 support today. This now leaves

$1.2314-$1.2291 as next support and protection against a return to the

$1.2269-$1.2266 area that provided a base last Friday. As a consequence, nearest

resistance dips to the day's $1.2384 high and will currently need back above

here, before the near term bear bias can be overturned.

CABLE TECHS: Rallies Still Troubled By $1.3997-$1.4000 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 3: $1.4070 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1.4021/29 1.618 swing $1.3930-$1.3782, 50% Fibo 

*RES 1: $1.3997/00 Feb 27 high, equality rise from $1.3782

*PRICE: $1.3986 @1444GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3905/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3875 Mar 13 low

*SUP 3: $1.3841 Mar 12 low, hourly base Mar 9

*SUP 4: $1.3817 Mar 6 low

*COMMENTARY* After a couple of days is still unable as yet to deal with

$1.3997-$1.4000 resistance. A break above the latter is the key to a further

$1.4021-$1.4029 rise, where the upper 1% volatility band also resides today.

While it continues to cap, focus will eventually switch to $1.3920-$1.3905

support. Back below the latter will caution, bringing recent upside momentum

into question and suggest scope for a  deeper correction of gains from $1.3782.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Sharp Pullback Approaches Key Near Term Support

*RES 4: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Y107.05 Mar 9 high

*RES 2: Y106.75 Mar 14 high

*RES 1: Y106.38 Hourly low/high Mar 14

*PRICE: Y105.91 @1445GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.70/75 Hourly lows/highs Mar 2-Mar 7

*SUP 2: Y105.46 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: Y105.13/25 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: Y104.00/09 15 month bear channel, swing target

*COMMENTARY* Still paying the price for faltering at Y107.28-Y107.30 resistance,

an area which also includes the upper 1% volatility band today. The subsequent

fall has reached toward the key near term support from between Y105.75-Y105.70.

Really need to stay above here if any recent upside momentum is to be retained

and avoid pressure returning on Y105.25-Y105.13. Resistance Y106.38-Y106.75 but

back above Y107.05 is likely needed to see upside confidence return.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Continued Fall Has Y130.52 Protecting Y130.10-Y130.05

*RES 4: Y132.95 1.618 swing of Y132.02-Y130.52

*RES 3: Y132.44/50 Mar 13 high, 38.2% Y137.51-Y129.35, 1% vol

*RES 2: Y131.85/00 Hourly congestion Mar 13-14

*RES 1: Y131.30/39 Hourly resistance, intraday high

*PRICE: Y130.75 @1452GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.52 Mar 8 low

*SUP 2: Y130.05/10 Hourly congestion Mar 1-Mar 5

*SUP 3: Y129.87 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's bullish 'outside day' resulted in a Y132.02 rise. The

subsequent lower close then saw the appearance of a potentially bearish 'Doji'

candle last Tuesday. This week's move back above Y132.02 appeared to negate this

but the subsequent cap by the 38.2% Fibo retrace level and upper 1% volatility

band between Y132.47-Y132.53 put a different complexion on things. Support from

Y130.52 now under assault but Y130.10-Y130.05 more important below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Continued Decline Has Stg0.8820-Stg0.8815 In It's Sights

*RES 4: Stg0.8968 Mar 7 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8935 Hourly recovery high Mar 7 

*RES 2: Stg0.8915 Hourly congestion Mar 5-Mar 9

*RES 1: Stg0.8880/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8829 @1500GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8815/20 Hourly congestion Feb 26-Feb 27

*SUP 2: Stg0.8794/02 61.8% Stg0.8687-Stg0.8968, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Stg0.8771 Feb 26 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8753 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8687-Stg0.8968

*COMMENTARY* It seems that we were not ready for a challenge to the top of the

congested trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, let alone a

break out. The failure below Stg0.8981 last week, has seen a return into the

recent range. Near term support from Stg0.8875-Stg0.8870 has been lost and now

opens the way for a deeper Stg0.8820-Stg0.8815 fall. Meanwhile,

Stg0.8880-Stg0.8885 currently bars the way to any near term recovery.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Sharp Setback After Failure To Deal With $0.7924

*RES 4: $0.7924 76.4% $0.7989-$0.7713, 50% $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 3: $0.7917 Mar 14 high

*RES 2: $0.7886 Mar 15 high

*RES 1: $0.7860 Mar 15 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7831 @1506GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7807 76.4% Fibo of $0.7773-$0.7917

*SUP 2: $0.7795 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 9

*SUP 3: $0.7772/73 Mar 7-Mar 8 lows

*SUP 4: $0.7750/55 Congestion area Mar 1-Mar 5

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up again. This kept us above the lower 1% volatility

band and with the added emphasis of a 0.7794 break, have subsequently seen a

rise, which with Wednesday's move through $0.7898, saw the rally stretch toward

the next resistance of note at $0.7924. Support $0.7846-$0.7843 has since been

lost today, leaving $0.7807-$0.7795 to take the strain.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.3000 Break Heads Toward Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.3132 61.8% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 3: $1.3125 1.618 swing of $1.3002-$1.2803

*RES 2: $1.3098 6 month bull channel top projection

*RES 1: $1.3052 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.3033 @1515GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2965/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2946 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2921 Mar 14 low

*SUP 4: $1.2895 Congestion area Mar 6-Mar 9

*COMMENTARY* Had two attempts earlier in the month to move through $1.3000

without success. The subsequent pullback broke below support from the 38.2% Fibo

retrace level at $1.2854, this of the gains seen since the Feb 26 low at $1.2615

but was held at the top of the next deeper correction area between

$1.2809-$1.2763. Meanwhile, back above $1.2961 and then that $1.3002, encourages

for another rally, perhaps toward 1.3052-$1.3098 next. Support $1.2965-$1.2946.

GOLD TECHS: $1334.1-$1341.1 The Bar To Further Upside Progress

*RES 4: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 3: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 1: $1330.1 Mar 14 high

*PRICE: $1319.2 @1518GMT

*SUP 1: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 2: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to find support from above $1311.2 over the course of

the last week, keeping the key near term support from the 50% Fibo retrace level

at $1301.4 intact for the time being. The recovery is still being aided by the

appearance of a potentially bullish 'Doji' candle close on Mar 1. To capitalise

on this, will need to navigate a way through $1334.1-$1341.1 resistance, before

any real upside impetus will be found.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]