MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Finding Some Support On Back Of Near Term Oversold

Conditions

*RES 4: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 3: $1.2375/85 Mar 14 congestion, Mar 15 high

*RES 2: $1.2336 Mar 16 high

*RES 1: $1.2305/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2276 @0850GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2258/66 Intraday low, 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 2: $1.2218/24 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.2155-$1.2446

*SUP 3: $1.2186 1.618 swing of $1.2273-$1.2413

*SUP 4: $1.2155 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* The failure to cope with $1.2410-$1.2413 resistance last week, the

catalyst behind the recent fall, which has slightly surpassed the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at $1.2266. A low of $1.2258 but has become oversold in the near

term. Now looking towards $1.2305-$1.2315 for initial resistance, Friday's

$1.2336 high above. Will need back through the latter to reduce downside

momentum. Below $1.2258 and the $1.2224-$1.2218 area offers next support.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3997-$1.4000 Resistance Still The Key To Greater Gains

*RES 4: $1.4065/70 1.618 swing $1.3998-$1.3890, Feb 26 high

*RES 3: $1.4021/29 1.618 swing $1.3930-$1.3782, 50% Fibo 

*RES 2: $1.3997/00 Feb 27 high, equality rise from $1.3782

*RES 1: $1.3970/81 Hourly resistance, Mar 16 high

*PRICE: $1.3950 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3905/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3875/90 Mar 13, Mar 16 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3841 Mar 12 low, hourly base Mar 9

*SUP 4: $1.3817 Mar 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Have seen a pullback after trying to break through $1.3997-$1.4000

resistance last week. A move through the latter remains the key to a further

$1.4021-$1.4070 rise, where the upper 1% volatility band also resides today. In

the meantime, has to deal with the earlier $1.3970-$1.3981 area first. While it

caps, focus will return to $1.3910-$1.3890 support but loss of $1.3875 likely

needed, before scope for a deeper $1.3841-$1.3817 fall.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y106.24-Y106.42 The Bar To Any Near Term Recovery Potential

*RES 4: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Y106.97/05 Recovery high and Mar 9 high

*RES 2: Y106.42 Mar 15 high

*RES 1: Y106.24 Hourly recovery high Mar 16

*PRICE: Y105.94 @0911GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.60 Mar 16 low

*SUP 2: Y105.46 Mar 6 low

*SUP 3: Y105.16/25 1% volatility band, Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: Y103.90/09 15 month bear channel, swing target

*COMMENTARY* Paying the price for faltering at Y107.28-Y107.30 resistance last

week, an area which also included the upper 1% volatility band. The subsequent

fall has reached slightly below the key near term support from Y105.70. Really

needed to stay above here, if any recent upside momentum is to be retained and

avoid pressure returning on Y105.25-Y105.16. Resistance Y106.24-Y106.42, back

above the latter would help with near term recovery efforts.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.25-Y130.52 In Way Of Recovery Efforts

*RES 4: Y131.35 Congestion area Early March

*RES 3: Y131.02 Mar 14 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y130.45/52 Hourly recovery high Mar 16, Mar 8 low

*RES 1: Y130.25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.10 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.61/70 Intraday low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y129.35 Mar 5 low

*SUP 3: Y128.85 38.2% Fibo of Y114.85-Y137.51

*SUP 4: Y128.48 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The failure last Tuesday to move through the 38.2% Fibo retrace

level at Y132.47, coupled with the upper 1% volatility band, has heaped problems

back on the downside. The fall below Y130.05 raising concerns, which has been

held at Y129.61 so far today, just below the lower 1% volatility band and above

the key Mar 5 low at Y129.35. For respite, will need to see a move back through

Y130.25-Y130.52. Below Y129.35 and look to Fibo level at Y128.85 next.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8779-Stg0.8771 Provides Next Decent Support Area

*RES 4: Stg0.8926 Mar 9 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8906 Mar 8 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8850 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8798 @0932GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8794 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8687-Stg0.8968

*SUP 2: Stg0.8779 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Stg0.8771 Feb 26 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8753 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8687-Stg0.8968

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months has now seen a move below

Stg0.8815. This sees support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8794

next, ahead of what looks a likely stronger area between Stg0.8779-Stg0.8771. In

the meantime, resistance from below Stg0.8850 keeps a lid on any near term

recovery potential.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Sharp Decline Continues, $0.7655-$0.7652 Key Support

*RES 4: $0.7833 Hourly recovery high Mar 15

*RES 3: $0.7804 Mar 16 high

*RES 2: $0.7771 Initial base Mar 16, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7735/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7699 @0948GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7687 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7655 6 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $0.7652 76.4% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136, 2% vol band

*SUP 4: $0.7628 Dec 14 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to lose ground rapidly, this has been exacerbated by

the loss of $0.7772-$0.7760 support. Also below the lower 1% volatility band, at

$0.7730 by time today. A low of $0.7687 at the time of writing, this protecting

what currently looks a decent area of support from between the 6 week bear

channel base at $0.7655 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652. Resistance

From $0.7735-$0.7740, above needed for near term respite.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Reaches $1.3125 Swing Target

*RES 4: $1.3217 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.3165 Jun 14 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3132 61.8% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 1: $1.3125 1.618 swing of $1.3002-$1.2803

*PRICE: $1.3109 @0955GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3065/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3048 Mar 16 low

*SUP 3: $1.3001/02 Mar 7, Mar 5 highs, now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2965 Congestion area Mar 14-Mar 15

*COMMENTARY* The rally through $1.3000 has continued, today reaching $1.3125,

the swing target of the recent $1.3002-$1.2803 fall. This leaves us just shy of

the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.3132. As a result, has become extremely

overbought in the near term, so looking to $1.3065-$1.3048 support for clues.

Loss of the latter will likely kick start a correction, potentially of those

gains from $1.2803. Above $1.3132 and minor $1.3165 ahead of 2% volatility band.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.1 Protects Against $1302.8-$1301.4 Fall

*RES 4: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 3: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 2: $1330.1 Mar 14 high

*RES 1: $1321.9 Mar 16 high

*PRICE: $1312.2 @1002GMT

*SUP 1: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 2: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 3: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Unable to find a way above $1334.1 resistance over the course of

the month and is paying the price as a result. The loss of $1311.2 support now

sees the Feb 8 low at $1307.1 as the remaining protection against a return to

the $1302.8-$1301.4 support area. The latter a 50% Fibo retrace level and guard

against a deeper $1286.1 decline. Meanwhile, $1321.9-$1330.1 provides resistance

against another attempt to reach that elusive $1334.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]