MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Still Has Initial $1.2397-$1.2413 Barrier

*RES 4: $1.2461 76.4% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.2155, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $1.2446/53 Mar 7 high, 1.618 swing $1.2389-$1.2286

*RES 2: $1.2413 Mar 14 high

*RES 1: $1.2397 76.4% Fibo of $1.2446-$1.2240

*PRICE: $1.2385 @0745GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2315/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2286 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: $1.2240 Mar 21 low

*SUP 4: $1.2212 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Approaching a tricky area of resistance, which needs to be cleared,

before confidence in fresh upside strength will appear. This resides firstly

between $1.2397-$1.2413 and then more importantly $1.2446-$1.2461 higher. Not

until a sustained break above the latter is seen, will the risk of a pullback be

dissipated. In this respect, initial support comes from between $1.2325-$1.2315

and then last Thursday's $1.2286 low. Back below here will disappoint.

CABLE TECHS: 1% Volatility Band In Way Of $1.4220 Return

*RES 4: $1.4296/09 2% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.4220-$1.4076

*RES 3: $1.4279 Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 2: $1.4220 Mar 22 high

*RES 1: $1.4195 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.4193 @0758GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4105/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4076/85 Mar 22, Mar 23 lows

*SUP 3: $1.4040 Hourly highs/lows Mar 19-21

*SUP 4: $1.4018/20 Hourly base Mar 19, initial high Mar 20

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered well from last Tuesday's drop to $1.3983. Thursday's

rally surpassed the 3 week bull channel top and also the next level of note, the

76.4% Fibo retrace level both at $1.4195. A high of $1.4220 before running into

some near term overbought conditions. As a result, have seen a fall to $1.4076

before reviving again, now looking at $1.4195 for potential resistance, ahead of

$1.4220 again. Support moves up to $1.4125-$1.4115.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Pressure Resumes After Loss Of Key Y105.25-Y104.95 Support

*RES 4: Y106.15/20 Hourly lows/highs Mar 20-21

*RES 3: Y105.97 Hourly recovery high Mar 22

*RES 2: Y105.60 Mar 16 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y105.35/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y105.10 @0809GMT

*SUP 1: Y104.63 Mar 23 low

*SUP 2: Y104.09 1.618 swing Y105.55-Y107.91

*SUP 3: Y103.98 1.618 swing Y105.25-Y107.30

*SUP 4: Y103.71/82 2% vol band, 16 month bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* Last week's recovery was stopped in its tracks by the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at Y106.65 on Wednesday. The resulting fall was swift, losing

support from Y105.60 initially and more latterly the key Y105.25-Y104.95 area. A

low so far of Y104.63, as we head towards the remaining swing targets between

Y104.09 and Y103.98. These ahead of the 16 month bear channel base at Y103.82

and long term Fibo at Y103.64. Immediate resistance from Y105.35-Y105.60.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Last Week's Fall Reaches Toward Y128.90-Y128.85 Support

*RES 4: Y131.73 Mar 20 high

*RES 3: Y131.07 Mar 21 high

*RES 2: Y130.56 Initial low Mar 22, now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.20/25 Mar 21 low, hourly high Mar 22

*PRICE: Y130.13 @0818GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.27 Hourly base Mar 23

*SUP 3: Y128.85/90 38.2% Fibo, equality fall from Y131.73 

*SUP 4: Y128.30 1.618 swing of Y129.61-Y131.73

*COMMENTARY* Last week's recovery stalled just below the 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at Y131.77 on Tuesday. Some near term overbought conditions putting an end

to the rise at Y131.73. Subsequent pullback broke below Y130.35-Y130.08 support,

raising concerns. Continued fall below the Mar 5 low at Y129.35 has next support

from Y128.90-Y128.85. An equality fall from Y131.73 and the 38.2% Fibo retrace

of the Y114.85-Y137.51 rise seen since last April. Resistance Y130.25-Y130.56.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovers After Brief Break Below 6 Month Trading Range

*RES 4: Stg0.8850 Mar 12 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Stg0.8817 Mar 19 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8782 Hourly high Mar 20

*RES 1: Stg0.8754/60 Mar 23 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8725 @0823GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8685/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8607 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area early in the month, continued apace last week. Thursday's

sharp dip to Stg0.8668 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687,

before finding respite on the back of oversold hourly conditions. In this

respect, nearest resistance comes from between Stg0.8750-Stg0.8760 but likely

requires a further move above Stg0.8782 to gain any real relief.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Keeps Pressure Off Key $0.7652 Support Area

*RES 4: $0.7859 76.4% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 3: $0.7823 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 2: $0.7786/94 Mar 22 high, 50% of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 1: $0.7755/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7734 @0826GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7687 Mar 22 low

*SUP 2: $0.7672 Mar 21 low

*SUP 3: $0.7652 76.4% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 4: $0.7628/35 Dec 14 low, 7 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* The fall reached $0.7672 on Wednesday before finding some support

and the strength to rally. This prevented a test into the key support from

$0.7652. The subsequent rise to a high of $0.7786, currently looks 5 wave

impulsive, so although the setback has fallen below the ideal support at

$0.7700, there may still be scope for increased gains to follow while above

$0.7672, given last Wednesday's 'outside day'. Resistance $0.7755-$0.7765.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Decline So Far Held Around Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2975/76 50% Fibo, Hourly recovery high Mar 21 

*RES 3: $1.2940/49 38.2% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2825, Mar 22 high 

*RES 2: $1.2920/25 Hourly congestion Mar 22-23

*RES 1: $1.2900/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2853 @0832GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2824/45 Mar 23 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.2803 Mar 12 low

*SUP 3: $1.2790 38.2% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*SUP 4: $1.2756/58 1.618 swing $1.2830-$1.2949, Feb 22 high

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from last Monday's test to the swing target at $1.3125

was rapid. Thursday's extended fall below $1.2877 support finding some respite

from around the lower 1% volatility band. Became oversold in the near term and

the subsequent recovery has so far seen a rise to the 38.2% retrace of those

losses from $1.3125. Below $1.2824 and $1.2803-$1.2790 next supports, ahead of

dual $1.2758-$1.2756 area.

GOLD TECHS: $1342.0 Break Sees $1351.1-$1354.6 Potential

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 2: $1354.6 2 month bear channel top

*RES 1: $1351.1 Feb 1, Mar 23 highs, 76.4% of $1366.2-$1302.8

*PRICE: $1346.4 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: $1331.8 Mar 23 low

*SUP 2: $1324.8 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: $1317.6 Mar 5 low

*SUP 4: $1312.9 Mar 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from above the Feb 7 low at $1307.1 last Tuesday and

the subsequent recovery through $1334.1 is near term encouraging. Next

resistance of note from 1342.0, a 61.8% Fibo retrace of the losses sustained

since the year's $1366.2 high on Jan 25 was breached Friday. Above and look to

continue the rise toward the 76.4% retrace and Feb 1 high at $1351.1 and the 2

month bear channel top at $1354.6. Support $1331.8-$1324.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]