MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Unable To Break Above The 1% Volatility band

*RES 4: $1.2556 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1.2520 1.618 swing of $1.2413-$1.2240

*RES 2: $1.2475/77 1% volatility band, intraday high

*RES 1: $1.2440/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2408 @1607GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2372 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2352 Mar 26 low

*SUP 3: $1.2317 Mar 23 low

*SUP 4: $1.2286 Mar 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Having made it's way through $1.2397-$1.2446 resistance, was

needing to clear the upper 1% volatility band, at $1.2475 by time today, to

makea move on next resistance from the swing target at $1.2520. This the

remaining barrier to the year's previous $1.2556 high, which at the time failed

to make a challenge to the longer term Fibo level at $1.2598. In the interim,

support from $1.2410-$1.2389 has been lost and opens the downside to some

correction. 

CABLE TECHS: Deep Setback After Rally Falters At $1.4245

*RES 4: $1.4279 Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 3: $1.4245 Mar 26, intraday highs

*RES 2: $1.4205 Intraday hourly base, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.4175 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4162 @1623GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4090/00 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4066 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.4041 38.2% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4245

*SUP 4: $1.3979/83 50% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4245, Mar 20 low

*COMMENTARY* Had faltered at the $1.4245 level for 24 hours earlier today, while

endeavouring to make headway into the early Feb highs at $1.4279. This ahead of

the year's previous $1.4346 peak and the upper 2% volatility band, at $1.4354 by

time today. The subsequent loss of $1.4170-$1.4120 support saw a loss of recent

upside momentum, a low of $1.4066 so far, just ahead of the 38.2% Fibo retrace

level at $1.4041. Oversold near term, $1.4175-$1.4205 resistance.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Stalling Around 61.8% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y106.78 23.6% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band

*RES 3: Y106.65 Mar 21 high

*RES 2: Y106.15/20 Hourly lows/highs Mar 20-21, 76.4% Fibo

*RES 1: Y105.88/90 61.8% of Y106.65-Y104.64, intraday high

*PRICE: Y105.65 @1627GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.25/29 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y104.87 Mar 26 low

*SUP 3: Y104.63 Mar 23 low

*SUP 4: Y104.09 1.618 swing Y105.55-Y107.91

*COMMENTARY* Has continued it's recovery from last Friday's Y104.63 low, today

reaching Y105.90, just above the 61.8% Fibo retrace of losses seen since last

week's Y106.65 high. Some near term overbought conditions are currently evident,

so initial support comes from between Y105.29-Y105.25 with yesterday's Y104.87

low of more consequence below. Loss here will concern leaving Y104.63

vulnerable, beneath which Y104.09-Y103.82 becomes possible.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Becoming Overbought On The Approach To Upper 1% Vol Band

*RES 4: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 3: Y132.44 Mar 13 high

*RES 2: Y132.22 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 1: Y131.82/92 Intraday high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y131.12 @1628GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.80/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.30/35 Hourly basing area Mar 26

*SUP 3: Y129.60/65 Hourly congestion area Mar 23-26

*SUP 4: Y129.32 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to recover following last Thursday's fall to Y128.95,

just above the key Y128.90-Y128.85 support area. A high of Y131.82, as we reach

toward the upper 1% volatility band, at Y131.92 today. Has become overbought in

the near term, so a pullback of sorts is anticipated. Nearest support of note

comes from between Y130.90-Y130.80, loss would caution and expose

Y130.30-Y129.60 below. Through Y131.92 and not much ahead of Y132.22-Y132.44.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovers After Brief Break Below 6 Month Trading Range

*RES 4: Stg0.8897 Mar 12 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 3: Stg0.8850/53 Mar 12 low, 61.8% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 2: Stg0.8817 Mar 19 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8798/00 Intraday high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8764 @1630GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8735/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8708/10 Mar 21, Mar 23 lows

*SUP 3: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area early in the month, continued apace last week. Thursday's

sharp dip to Stg0.8668 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687,

before finding respite on the back of some oversold hourly conditions. In this

respect, having broken above Stg0.8765-Stg0.8782, resistance comes from

Stg0.8800-Stg0.8817 next. Support now ranged between Stg0.8740-Stg0.8708.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Triangular Consolidation Following Last Week's $0.7672 Low

*RES 4: $0.7859 76.4% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 3: $0.7823 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7672, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $0.7786/94 Mar 22 high, 50% of $0.7917-$0.7672

*RES 1: $0.7758/65 Mar 26 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7723 @1632GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7687 Mar 22 low

*SUP 2: $0.7667/72 1% volatility band, Mar 21 low

*SUP 3: $0.7652 76.4% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 4: $0.7628/31 Dec 14 low, 7 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* A triangular type consolidation has been playing out following the

dip to $0.7672 last week. If anything is to become of last Wednesday's

potentially bullish 'Outside Day' then will need to see a rally back above

$0.7786-$0.7794 soon or the risk will once again revert to lower, with a loss of

$0.7672-$0.7667 having the potential to test $0.7652 and possibly $0.7602.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2923-$1.2936 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2970/76 50% Fibo, Hourly recovery high Mar

*RES 3: $1.2933/36 38.2% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2815, Mar 22 high

*RES 2: $1.2923 Mar 26 high 

*RES 1: $1.2903 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2862 @1634GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2803/15 Mar 12, intraday lows

*SUP 2: $1.2790 38.2% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*SUP 3: $1.2756/58 1.618 swing $1.2830-$1.2949, Feb 22 high

*SUP 4: $1.2707/19 38.2% of $2061-$1.3125, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Trying to decouple from support from the lower 1% volatility band,

at $1.2830 by time today. A low of $1.2815 so far, just ahead of decent support

from between $1.2803-$1.2790. Has become oversold in the near term, so looking

toward $1.2895-$1.2903 initially and then the more important $1.2923-$1.2936

region, as will need back above here to reduce near term bear bias and produce a

better correction of losses from the month's $1.3125 high.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Challenges Channel Top, $1340.7-$1336.7 Support

*RES 4: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high

*RES 3: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 2: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 1: $1356.9 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1345.1 @1638GMT

*SUP 1: $1340.7 Mar 6 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1336.7 Mar 21 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1324.8 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: $1315.3 Mar 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Has now made it's way slightly back above $1354.4, the current

level of the 2 month bear channel top. If this can be sustained, then the way is

open for a further $1361.8-$1366.2 rise, as we continue to erase losses since

the year's $1366.2 high. As a consequence, support also rises, two former

$1340.7 and $1336.7 highs providing the initial protection against any

meaningful setbacks within this years range above $1302.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]