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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Fails Below $1.2225-$1.2247 Portends Fresh Fall
*RES 4: $1.2245/50 Apr 24 high, 8 wk channel base, Apr 20 low
*RES 3: $1.2210 Intraday high
*RES 2: $1.2183 Initial intraday pullback low
*RES 1: $1.2145/55 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2110 @1555GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2105 1.618 swing of $1.2145-$1.2210
*SUP 2: $1.2091/93 1.618 swing $1.2215-$1.2415, Sep 8 high
*SUP 3: $1.2055 50% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556
*SUP 4: $1.2035/38 2% volatility band, 10 week bear channel
*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's recovery retested the base of the previously broken 8
week bull channel, now at $1.2247, before once again testing lower.
$1.2155-$1.2143 support proved frustrating earlier in the day, allowing a
$1.2210 bounce, which failed to trouble $1.2225-$1.2247 resistance. The
subsequent fall now aims to test the resolve of the $1.2093-$1.2091 area, which
in turn protects $1.2055-$1.2035. Nearest resistance $1.2145-$1.2183.
CABLE TECHS: Failure To Recover Above $1.4000 Remains A Near Term Concern
*RES 4: $1.4088 Apr 20 high
*RES 3: $1.4031 Apr 23 high
*RES 2: $1.4000/10 Intraday high, hourly base Apr 20
*RES 1: $1.3965/75 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3930 @1603GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3890/95 Mar 16, intraday lows
*SUP 2: $1.3869 76.4% $1.3712-$1.4377, swing $1.3918-$1.3997
*SUP 3: $1.3814/30 2% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.3895-$1.4000
*SUP 4: $1.3782 Mar 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Failure again to move through $1.3997-$1.4007 still leaves the
downside vulnerable. The loss of Tuesday's $1.3918 base having the potential to
enter the next region of support, from between the Mar 16 low at $1.3890 and the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3869. Any lower and will be looking to $1.3830
and the 2% volatility band at $1.3814 to protect the Mar 8 low at $1.3782.
Resistance $1.3965-75 ahead of $1.4000-$1.4010.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.51-Y109.61 Still The Next Region Of Resistance
*RES 4: Y110.22/27 2% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 3: Y109.79 Feb 8 high, 
*RES 2: Y109.61 1.618 swing of Y109.20-Y108.54
*RES 1: Y109.51 1.618 projection target from Y105.66
*PRICE: Y109.28 @1607GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.75/85 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low
*SUP 3: Y108.13 Hourly base Apr 23
*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Having capped the rally on Tuesday, the 50% Fibo retrace level at
Y109.19 relented under challenge on Wednesday. A sustained break will allow
Y109.51-Y109.61 next, a projection target from the Apr 2 base at Y105.66 and the
swing of the recent Y109.20-Y108.54 pullback. Meanwhile, nearest support rises
to Y108.85-Y108.75, loss will caution but eyes will likely be on the Apr 24 low
at Y108.54. Above Y109.61 and Y110.22-Y110.27 the next target range higher.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Pullback Cautions After Loss of Pivotal Y132.56-Y132.38
*RES 4: Y133.80 Feb 12 high
*RES 3: Y134.49 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: Y133.25/26 Intraday, Apr 25 highs
*RES 1: Y132.90 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y132.36 @1616GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.29/38 Intraday low, 76.4% of Y132.04-Y133.49
*SUP 2: Y132.04/11 Apr 20, Apr 17 lows
*SUP 3: Y131.81/82 Apr 12 low, Mar 27 high
*SUP 4: Y131.20 Congestion area Mar 27-Apr 6
*COMMENTARY* Rallies still kept back by Tuesday's Y133.49 high and while capped
here, the near term focus was on Y132.90-Y132.56 support. Both have subsequently
been lost which spoils the look of recent upside momentum. The lower 76.4% Fibo
retrace at Y132.38 is also wobbling, beneath which the focus will again turn to
Y132.11-Y132.04. Any loss of the latter will confirm decent correction underway.
Nearest resistance dips to Y132.90-Y133.26.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 And 1% Volatilty Band Combine To Cap
*RES 4: Stg0.8884/86 2% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 2: Stg0.8800 1% volatility band 
*RES 1: Stg0.8794/98 50% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Mar 27 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8699 @1625GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8681 Intraday low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8661 Apr 17 high, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.8625 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.8620 Apr 17 low, 6 month bear channel base
*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break below the 6 month bear channel earlier in
the month, a brief dip to Stg0.8620 was held by the lower 1% volatility band at
the time. The subsequent rise, broke back above Stg0.8753-Stg0.8759 resistance
but has again been thwarted by the Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 region and the upper 1%
volatility band. Support from between Stg0.8725-Stg0.8706 has since been lost
today, leaving Stg0.8661 to protect against a Stg0.8625-Stg0.8620 return.
AUSSIE TECHS: Still Has Decent Support Showing From $0.7553-$0.7528 
*RES 4: $0.7683 Apr 23 high
*RES 3: $0.7655 Apr 20 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 1: $0.7595/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7565 @1630GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7547/53 Intraday low, 10 week bear channel base
*SUP 2: $0.7539 Equality fall from $0.7813 to $0.7917-$0.7643
*SUP 3: $0.7528 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7502 Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Approaching decent support from within the $0.7553-$0.7539 area and
just below here lies the lower 2% volatility band, at $0.7528 by time today.
Always cautious on any break below here, as never usually has any longevity.
Last happened on Feb 8-9 and was quickly reversed. That said, will need a lift
firstly back through $0.7595-$0.7605 and more importantly $0.7621 before any
upside belief will appear. Below $0.7528 and Dec 8 low next at $0.7502.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: A $1.2813 Hold Remains Important To Upside Momentum
*RES 4: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 3: $1.2969 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 1: $1.2897/98 61.8% of $1.3125-$1.2528, Apr 25 high
*PRICE: $1.2862 @1635GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2821 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.2813 Apr 24 low
*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: $1.2676/86 Apr 19 high, initial rally high Apr 20
*COMMENTARY* The rally has extended through the potentially troublesome
$1.2846-$1.2848 region, the subsequent dip to $1.2813 on Tuesday helped to
remove some of the near term overbought conditions. Now looking to the 61.8%
Fibo retrace at $1.2897 for next resistance, $1.2941-$1.2948 of more likely
consequence higher. A low of $1.2821 but below $1.2813 would caution now and
suggest the rise was losing some momentum, $1.2750 then below.
GOLD TECHS: $1315.5 Next Support After 8 Week Bull Channel Break 
*RES 4: $1350.6 Apr 9 high
*RES 3: $1345.8 Apr 20 high
*RES 2: $1335.8 Apr 23 high
*RES 1: $1333.0 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1317.6 @1638GMT
*SUP 1: $1315.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1307.3 Mar 20 low
*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low
*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1333.0 today,
following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2 high
earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1326.7,
opens the way for a continued $1317.6-$1315.5 fall. The former likely keeping us
away from a move back towards the year's $1302.2 low. In the meantime, that
$1333.0 and then Monday's $1335.8 high provide initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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