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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Decline Approaches Next $1.2055-$1.2035 Support Area
*RES 4: $1.2210 Apr 26 high
*RES 3: $1.2182 Apr 24 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2156/60 Initial low Apr 26, Apr 25 low
*RES 1: $1.2117/20 Intraday high, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2078 @1405GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2055 50% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556
*SUP 2: $1.2035 10 week bear channel base
*SUP 3: $1.1990/10 1.618 proj'n tgt from $1.2415, 2% vol band
*SUP 4: $1.1956/61 1.618 swing $1.2155-$1.2477, Nov 27 high 
*COMMENTARY* The $1.2093-$1.2091 area has gone allowing a move down to the next
band of support from between $1.2055-$1.2035. A 50% Fibo retrace level and the
current base of the 10 week bear channel. Any lower and the 2% volatility band,
at $1.2010 by time today, is the protection against a further $1.1990-$1.1956
fall. This the 1.618 projected fall from $1.2415 to prior $1.2477-$1.2215 and
the swing of recent $1.2155-$1.2477 rise.  Resistance from $1.2117 to $1.2182.
CABLE TECHS: Heads Toward 2018 Bull Channel Base And March Low
*RES 4: $1.4000 Apr 26 high
*RES 3: $1.3935 Intraday high
*RES 2: $1.3895 Apr 26 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3840/45 Hourly resistance 
*PRICE: $1.3772 @1414GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3747 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3734 2018 bull channel base projection
*SUP 3: $1.3712 Mar 1 low
*SUP 4: $1.3688 Weekly rising support line from Mar 2017
*COMMENTARY* Failure again to move through $1.3997-$1.4007 on Thursday left the
downside vulnerable. The subsequent loss of $1.3918-$1.3890 was a concern. This
has been followed today by a break of $1.3830 and then the Mar 8 low at $1.3782.
The 2% volatility band at $1.3768 has also been squeezed. Always nervous when
below here, as rare and never long lasting. Resistance falls to $1.3845-$1.3895,
with the day's $1.3935 high the key level above.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.51-Y109.61 Still The Next Region Of Resistance
*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 3: Y109.79 Feb 8 high, 
*RES 2: Y109.61 1.618 swing of Y109.20-Y108.54
*RES 1: Y109.51/54 1.618 proj'n target from Y105.66, i'day hi
*PRICE: Y109.26 @1416GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.75/85 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low
*SUP 3: Y108.13 Hourly base Apr 23
*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Having capped the rally on Tuesday, the 50% Fibo retrace level at
Y109.19 relented under challenge on Wednesday. A sustained break will allow
Y109.51-Y109.61 next, a projection target from the Apr 2 base at Y105.66 and the
swing of the recent Y109.20-Y108.54 pullback. Meanwhile, nearest support rises
to Y108.85-Y108.75, loss will caution but eyes will likely be on the Apr 24 low
at Y108.54. Above Y109.61 and Y110.27-Y110.40 the next target range higher.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Recent Upside Momentum Lost After Break Below Y132.56
*RES 4: Y134.49 Apr 24 high
*RES 3: Y133.25/26 Apr 26, Apr 25 highs
*RES 2: Y132.87/90 Initial pullback Apr 24, Apr 25 low
*RES 1: Y132.50/55 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y131.98 @1419GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.81/82 Apr 12 low, Mar 27 high
*SUP 2: Y131.32 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: Y131.22 50% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49
*SUP 4: Y130.68 61.8% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49
*COMMENTARY* Subsequent rallies were kept below Tuesday's Y133.49 high and the
loss of Y132.56 support spoiled the look of recent upside momentum. Today
attempting to break clear of the recent Y132.04 range base. Sustained move below
here will confirm decent correction underway, of gains seen from last month's
Y128.95 low. Y131.82-Y131.22 then the next region of support lower. Nearest
resistance dips to Y132.50-Y132.90.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Back to Where We Started The Week And Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 
*RES 4: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790
*RES 3: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 2: Stg0.8810 1% volatility band 
*RES 1: Stg0.8794/98 50% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Mar 27 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8770 @1430GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8735/45 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8708 Initial recovery high Apr 26, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8661 Apr 17 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Thursday lost Stg0.8725-Stg0.8706 support, a low of Stg0.8681 so
far, as we handed back some of the recent gains from the base of the 6 month
bear channel at $0.8620. Oversold in the near term and with the return above
Stg0.8765  we are back to looking at previously troublesome Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798
and the upper 1% volatility band at Stg0.8810. Will need to escape the latter,
if a further foray toward the top of the channel is to follow.
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7575-$0.7589 Currently In Way Of Any Recovery Efforts
*RES 4: $0.7655 Apr 20 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $0.7589 Apr 26 high
*RES 1: $0.7565/75 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7558 @1431GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7532/39 Intraday low, equality fall from $0.7813 
*SUP 2: $0.7505 2% volatility band
*SUP 3: $0.7502 Dec 8 low
*SUP 4: $0.7481 50% Fibo of $0.6827-$0.8136
*COMMENTARY* Have seen a move below the base of the $0.7553-$0.7539 support
area, a low of $0.7532, before encountering some near term oversold conditions.
In this respect, look to $0.7565-$0.7575 to provide an initial barrier to any
rally, yesterday's $0.7589 high a tougher proposition above. Any recovery will
be beholden to a move through here. Below $0.7532 and there is currently not
much showing until the 2% volatility band and Dec 8 low between $0.7505-$0.7502.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2941-$1.2944 On Clearance Of Fibo Resistance
*RES 4: $1.3001 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 1: $1.2897/01 61.8% of $1.3125-$1.2528, intraday high
*PRICE: $1.2861 @1432GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2840 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2813/21 Apr 24, Apr 26 lows
*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: $1.2676/86 Apr 19 high, initial rally high Apr 20
*COMMENTARY* The rally has extended through the potentially troublesome
$1.2846-$1.2848 region, the subsequent dip to $1.2813 on Tuesday helped to
remove some of the near term overbought conditions. Now looking to clear the
61.8% Fibo retrace at $1.2897, then $1.2941-$1.2944 of more consequence higher.
Hourly support from $1.2840 but $1.2821-$1.2813 of more importance below. Loss
would caution now and suggest the rise was losing momentum.
GOLD TECHS: $1315.5 Next Support After 8 Week Bull Channel Break 
*RES 4: $1350.6 Apr 9 high
*RES 3: $1345.8 Apr 20 high
*RES 2: $1335.8 Apr 23 high
*RES 1: $1333.9 Base of broken 8 week bull channel
*PRICE: $1322.9 @1433GMT
*SUP 1: $1315.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1307.3 Mar 20 low
*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low
*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1333.9 today,
following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2 high
earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1326.7,
opens the way for a continued $1317.6-$1315.5 fall. The former likely keeping us
away from a move back towards the year's $1302.2 low. In the meantime, that
$1333.9 and then Monday's $1335.8 high provide initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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