MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2055-$1.2064 Provides Initial Resistance Now

*RES 4: $1.2139 Apr 30 high

*RES 3: $1.2106 Apr 30 hourly recovery high

*RES 2: $1.2085 Apr 30 hourly recovery highs

*RES 1: $1.2055/64 Apr 27, Apr 30 lows

*PRICE: $1.2011 @1710GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1981/90 I'day low, 1.618 proj'n target from $1.2415

*SUP 2: $1.1954/61 1.618 swing $1.2155-$1.2477, Nov 27 high  

*SUP 3: $1.1948 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1937 61.8% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.2055 offer some support

to the decline from the Apr 17 high at $1.2415. The subsequent bounce reached

$1.2139 but without any real conviction and once again the downside is back

under pressure. $1.2055 has given way today and the lower edge of 

$1.2029-$1.1990 has been put under pressure. Clearly below and $1.1954-$1.1937

next. Nearest resistance now $1.2055-$1.2064 with $1.2085-$1.2106 above.

CABLE TECHS: Continued Fall Has $1.3576-$1.3541 As Next Support Area

*RES 4: $1.3787/93 Hourly recovery high Apr 30, Apr 30 high

*RES 3: $1.3740 Hourly high Apr 30

*RES 2: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3645/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3619 @1725GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3576 50% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377

*SUP 2: $1.3550 Dec 1 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3541/43 Equality fall from $1.4000, 61.8% Fibo

*SUP 4: $1.3458 Jan 11 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw the the Mar 1 low at $1.3712 and the weekly support line

from Mar 2017 under pressure. This was followed by a near term $1.3787

corrective bounce. Further losses have ensued today, initially below $1.3702

then $1.3659-$1.3613, to reach $1.3588 so far. Now below the 2% volatility band

at $1.3645, always cautious as rare and never long lived. Next support comes

from $1.3576-$1.3541. Resistance $1.3645-$1.3665 but $1.3740 is key higher.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.79-Y110.27 Potential After Clearance Y109.61 Resistance

*RES 4: Y110.48 Feb 2 high

*RES 3: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 2: Y109.89 1% volatility band 

*RES 1: Y109.79 Feb 8 high

*PRICE: Y109.64 @1729GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.10/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.97 Apr 27 low

*SUP 3: Y108.79 Apr 25 low

*SUP 4: Y108.54 Apr 24 low

*COMMENTARY* Has finally cleared Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance, which has recently

proved troublesome. This a a projection target from the Apr 2 low at Y105.66 and

the swing of the more recent Y109.20-Y108.54 pullback. These currently

preventing a higher Y109.79-Y110.27 rise. Support from Y109.10-Y108.97 keeps the

near term outlook bullish but any lower would caution and put Y108.79-Y108.54

under pressure and hint at the chance of a deeper correction.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correction Continues As Y131.76 Gives Way

*RES 4: Y133.05 Congestion area Apr 24-26

*RES 3: Y132.87/90 Initial pullback Apr 24, Apr 25 low

*RES 2: Y132.55 Apr 30 high

*RES 1: Y132.20/30 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y131.62 @1737GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.57 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y131.22 50% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Y130.68 61.8% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49

*SUP 4: Y129.99  Apr 2 low, 76.4% of Y128.95-Y133.49

*COMMENTARY* Last Tuesday's Y133.49 high has seen the zenith of the recovery so

far, subsequent rallies failed to trouble it and the loss of Y132.56 support

spoiled the look of recent upside momentum. The next real area of interest from

between Y131.82-Y131.76 has given way today and opens way for a deeper

correction of gains from the Mar 22 low at Y128.95. This has Y131.22-Y130.68 as

next band of support. Resistance Y132.20-Y132.30.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rallies Back Into Top Half of 6 Month Bear Channel 

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 2: Stg0.8835/40 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, 1% vol band

*RES 1: Stg0.8828 Apr 30 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8813 @1740GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8755/61 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8735 Hourly congestion Apr 25-26

*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Support from Stg0.8681 held the pullback last week and Friday's

recovery saw us back to challenging the previously troublesome

Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance. Monday's move higher takes us back into the

upper half of the 6 month bear channel, the Stg0.8835-40 area likely to provide

the next test to this rally. As a result, nearest support of note moves up to

Stg0.8755. The equality rise at Stg0.8851 is next above Stg0.8840.

AUSSIE TECHS: Downside Pressure Resumes, Breaks December Low

*RES 4: $0.7621 Apr 24 high

*RES 3: $0.7585 Apr 27 high

*RES 2: $0.7547 Intraday high

*RES 1: $0.7525 Apr 30 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7492 @1750GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7481 50% Fibo of $0.6827-$0.8136

*SUP 2: $0.7457 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7425 2018 weekly bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: $0.7373 May 29 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Downside pressure resumes, today breaking below the $0.7510-$0.7502

support area. The latter the outstanding low from last December. Lower and now

looking at 0.7481 next. This a longer term 50% Fibo retrace level, ahead of the

lower 2% volatility band at $0.7457. In the meantime, nearest resistance falls

to $0.7525 and then the day's $0.7547 high but currently requires a move back

above last Friday's $0.7585 high, before any correction of note is likely.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Breaks Above Recent Range Highs

*RES 4: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*RES 3: $1.2960 1.618 swing of $1.2901-$1.2806

*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs

*RES 1: $1.2914 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2876 @1755GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2830 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2806 Apr 30 low 

*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low

*SUP 4: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20

*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from $1.2813 got squeezed on Monday, a low of

$1.2806 but was unable as yet to maintain the break. The subsequent recovery has

now taken us back above the recent $1.2897-$1.2901 range top. Clearance of the

latter, allows $1.2941-$1.2960 to come into the picture. Nearest support now

$1.2830 and that $1.2806 low should now hold if a deeper correction of gains

from the Apr 17 low at $1.2528 is to be avoided.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.3 Loss Opens Way To Year's Previous Low

*RES 4: $1335.8 Base of broken 9 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1325.0 Apr 30 high

*RES 1: $1315.4 Apr 26 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1306.6 @1803GMT

*SUP 1: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1280.1 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1335.8

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall. $1307.3 support lost today,

suggesting a return towards the year's $1302.2 low. In the meantime,

$1315.4-$1325.0 presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]