MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Falters Ahead Of $1.1898 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2009 May 3 high

*RES 3: $1.1977 May 7 high

*RES 2: $1.1939 May 8 high

*RES 1: $1.1897/98 May 9 high, May 7 low

*PRICE: $1.1859 @0813GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1823/28 May 9 low, 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 

*SUP 2: $1.1777/90 Swing $1.1823-$1.1897,76.4% $1.1554-$1.2556

*SUP 3: $1.1738 Dec 15 low

*SUP 4: $1.1709/17 38.2% $1.0340-$1.2556, Dec 12 low, 2% vol

*COMMENTARY* The projection target at $1.1828 under challenge Wednesday, a low

of $1.1823 before encountering some oversold hourly conditions. Initial

resistance from the May 7 low at $1.1898 carries some importance above. Will

need to climb back through here before any rally will carry the threat of a

decent sized correction. Below $1.1823 and the 76.4% Fibo level at $1.1790 and

swing target at $1.1777, protect against a deeper fall.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3630 Resistance Still Keeps The Downside Bias Intact

*RES 4: $1.3667 May 2 high

*RES 3: $1.3630 May 3 high

*RES 2: $1.3618 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.3580/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3529 @1109GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3510/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3484/87 May 8, May 4 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3458 Jan 11 low

*SUP 4: $1.3401 1.618 swing of $1.3484-$1.3618

*COMMENTARY* The slowed pace of the decline has allowed a move back within the

lower 2% volatility band and this held the fall on Friday at $1.3487. This level

was challenged again on Tuesday, a slight break lower to $1.3484, before finding

support again. Meanwhile today's rally has reached $1.3618 but as stated before

any recovery will only feel the benefit, if a break of $1.3630 can be staged.

Support $1.3515-$1.3510. Below $1.3484 has $1.3458-$1.3401 support next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  7 Week Support Line Survives A Test On Tuesday

*RES 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y110.51 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 1: Y110.04 May 2 high

*PRICE: Y109.88 @0822GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.35/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.16 7 week rising support line

*SUP 3: Y108.83 May 8 low

*SUP 4: Y108.54/65 Apr 24, May 4 lows

*COMMENTARY* The 7 week rising support line survived a test on Tuesday, keeping

recent upside momentum intact for the time being. Finally overnight, the Y109.80

resistance level has been broken, thereby allowing a Y110.04 return. Support

rises accordingly, Y109.40-Y109.35 initially, ahead of that support line at

Y109.16 by time today. Directly above Y110.04 and the Y110.24 Fibo retrace comes

back into the picture ahead of the pivotal Y110.84 level.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Falls Shy Of Key Y130.64-Y130.88 Resistance

*RES 4: Y131.86 61.8% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 3: Y131.36 50% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 2: Y130.86/88 38.2% of Y133.49-Y129.23, May 4 high

*RES 1: Y130.56/64 Intraday high, hourly recovery high May 4

*PRICE: Y130.36 @0828GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.88/93 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.56 Initial rally high May 8, now support

*SUP 3: Y129.23 May 8 low

*SUP 4: Y128.85/95 2 year bull channel base, Mar 22 low 

*COMMENTARY* A low of Y129.23 on Tuesday, just below the swing target at Y129.44

and protecting against a return to the Mar 22 base at Y128.95 and the 2 year

bull channel base projection at Y128.85. Oversold in the near term as a

consequence, the subsequent rally breaking Y130.31 resistance and making a brave

attempt on the higher Y130.64-Y130.88 area. Above the the latter being key to

any lasting recovery. Support rises to Y129.88-Y129.56.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8810-Stg0.8815 The Bar To Any Fresh Upside Potential

*RES 4: Stg0.8871 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 2: Stg0.8835/42 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 4 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8810/15 May 8 high, May 4 low

*PRICE: Stg0.8787 @1114GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8745/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8719/28 76.4% Stg0.8681-Stg0.8842, May 9 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8702/05 1% vol band, 61.8% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8642

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain the move back into the top half of the 6 month

bear channel. A high of Stg0.8842 last week, before succumbing to some

corrective pressure. The loss of Stg0.8761 on Tuesday and then the 61.8% Fibo

retrace at Stg0.8742 on Wednesday, leaves the Stg0.8719-Stg0.8702 area

vulnerable to a test. Meanwhile, back above Stg0.8780 has Stg0.8810-Stg0.8815

resistance higher.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7492-$0.7493 Resistance But $0.7531 Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7578 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7561/65 May 4 high, 38.2% of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 2: $0.7528/31 May 8 high, hourly recovery high May 7

*RES 1: $0.7492/93 May 4, May 7 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7477 @0846GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7430/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7412 May 9 low

*SUP 3: $0.7397 2018 weekly bear channel base

*SUP 4: $0.7352 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* A low of $0.7412 on Wednesday, just beneath the swing target at

$0.7419. This the remaining protection to the 2018 weekly bear channel base at

$0.7397. In the meantime, nearest resistance from the May 1 low at $0.7473 has

been breached, leaving the previous basing area at $0.7492-$0.7493. as next

barrier. It is however, the higher $0.7531 level that is currently the key to

any better recovery prospects. Below $0.7397 and $0.7352-$0.7333 next.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2818-$1.2803 Loss Opens Up Corrective Potential

*RES 4: $1.2914/18 May 1, May 4 highs

*RES 3: $1.2885 Hourly high May 9

*RES 2: $1.2864 Hourly recovery high May 9

*RES 1: $1.2825/30 May 9 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2785 @0857GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2763 50% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*SUP 2: $1.2729 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2708 61.8% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*SUP 4: $1.2633/39 Apr 20 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*COMMENTARY* Key support from between $1.2818-$1.2803 has been overcome today,

after the briefest of recoveries to $1.2864 late on Wednesday, helped to remove

near term oversold conditions. Next support to watch comes from the 50% Fibo

retrace level at $1.2763, this the protection against a further $1.2729-$1.2708

fall. Resistance falls accordingly, the $1.2825-$1.2830 region, ahead of that

previously mentioned $1.2864 level.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1342.5 Base of broken 10 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1315.2 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/1.7 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, May 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1282.2 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1342.5

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,

suggests a test of the year's previous $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at

$1301.4. In the meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]