MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2095 21-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.2019 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1986 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1930 Hourly support May 11 

*SUP 2: $1.1871 Hourly support May 10 

*SUP 3: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Thursday's close above $1.1897 bought bulls breathing room and

increases the risk of a correction initially targeting $1.2019-53 where the

200-DMA is located when combined with correcting O/S studies. Above $1.2053 is

needed to shift initial focus back to $1.2153-1.2294. Bears now look for a close

below $1.1871 to see pressure back on 2018 lows. A close below 2018 lows is

needed to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on $1.1690-1.1716.

CABLE TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.3617

*RES 4: $1.3792 High Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 1: $1.3617 High May 9

*PRICE: $1.3593 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3531 Hourly support May 11 

*SUP 2: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1.3394 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 200-DMA ($1.3551) continue but follow through

remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum divergence seen

as key concerns for bears. Bulls need a close above $1.3617 to gain breathing

room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to $1.3799-1.3929 where 21

($1.3800), 55 ($1.3929) & 100 ($1.3891) DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below

$1.3456 to initially target $1.3300.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y110.44 55-WMA 

*RES 3: Y110.17 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y110.02 High May 2 

*RES 1: Y109.56 High May 11

*PRICE: Y109.50 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.81 Low May 8, 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.49 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Yet another rejection ahead of the 200-DMA and 55-WMA was a concern

for bulls last week and leaves the pair looking offered. Bears now need a close

below the 100-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to Y106.57-107.85

where the 55-DMA (Y107.30) is located. Bulls continue to look for a close above

the 55-WMA to confirm initial focus on Y111.22-98 and overall focus to tests of

2018 highs.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.75 Support Now Key Today

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y132.38 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.60 21-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.27 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.22 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.75 High May 10 now support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 4: Y129.19 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support around the 200-WMA last week when

combined with daily studies correcting from very O/S levels. The pair has worked

its way back towards Y131.27-131.60 where 55 & 21-DMAs are noted. Overall bulls

need a close above the 100-DMA (Y132.71) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10. Bears

now need a close below Y130.75 to ease bullish pressure and below 2018 lows to

initially target the bear channel base around Y125.80.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Topside Hesitation A Worry

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8871 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8844 High May 4

*PRICE: Gbp0.8815 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8782 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8725 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally Thursday bought bulls breathing room but the

hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted is less than

ideal. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and

to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease

pressure on resistance layers and below Gbp0.8725 to shift focus back to 2018

lows.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2849

*RES 4: $1.2996 - High May 5

*RES 3: $1.2849 - High May 10

*RES 2: $1.2834 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2799 - High May 11

*PRICE: $1.2775 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2731 - Low May 11 

*SUP 2: $1.2685 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2646 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2579 - High Apr 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off last week is starting to see support emerge on dips

with bears struggling to gain traction below the 21-DMA ($1.2795). Bears

continue to look for the close below the 200-DMA needed to confirm initial focus

on $1.2528 Apr lows and overall focus on 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above

$1.2849 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and to shift immediate focus to

$1.2996-1.3048.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7648 Next Topside Hurdle

*RES 4: $0.7684 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7584 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7551 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7519 - Low May 11 

*SUP 2: $0.7490 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $0.7472 - High May 9 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9

*COMMENTARY: The previously noted lack of follow through on 2018 lows was

followed up with a close above $0.7490 that bought bulls breathing room. A close

above $0.7648 remains needed to shift initial focus to $0.7684-0.7735 where the

55-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $0.7472 to confirm a false break

and return immediate focus to 2018 lows and then $0.7326 June lows beneath.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Still Need Close Above $1332.6

*RES 4: $1340.8 - Low Apr 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $1326.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1326.6 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1321.2 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1310.5 - Low May 10 

*SUP 2: $1306.3 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 4: $1293.3 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back to the 200-DMA last week resulted in a

test of key DMAs only to be rejected Friday. Bears continue to look for a close

below $1301.5 to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5). The

55-DMA capped Friday with bulls still needing a close above $1332.6 to gain

traction above key DMAs and to return focus to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs

are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]