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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Loss Of $1.1645 Would Open Up Downside Correction Prospects
*RES 4: $1.1810/18 61.8% of $1.1996-$1.1510, 1% vol band
*RES 3: $1.1751/54 May 24 high, 76.4% of $1.1830-$1.1510
*RES 2: $1.1729 May 28 high
*RES 1: $1.1700/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1663 @01620GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1645 Hourly base May 30
*SUP 2: $1.1615 Hourly congestion May 28-May 30
*SUP 3: $1.1590/94 Recovery high May 29, hourly base May 30
*SUP 4: $1.1560 Initial recovery high May 30, now support
*COMMENTARY* Always a good indication of a turnaround when the man in the street
starts talking the Euro lower. The move back through $1.1676 offered initial
encouragement, today's move through the 6 week falling resistance line, at
$1.1687, the next. Now has to deal with the May 28 high at $1.1729 and more
pertinently $1.1751-$1.1754, if the rally is to continue. Support from above
1.1645. Loss of the latter would reopen downside potential.
CABLE TECHS: Breaks Through $1.3305 But So Far Without Enthusiasm 
*RES 4: $1.3460 May 10 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.3422 May 24 high
*RES 2: $1.3380 Hourly congestion May 23-25
*RES 1: $1.3342/48 May 28, intraday highs
*PRICE: $1.3291 @1625GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3277 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3235/40 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1.3204 May 29 low
*SUP 4: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377
*COMMENTARY* Comparatively speaking didn't lose as much ground as others Monday,
holding on to $1.3204 support. The subsequent recovery has been relatively slow
however, taking a while to deal with $1.3299-$1.3305 resistance. Has moved above
today but has yet to show any real flourish. Resistance $1.3342-$1.3348 has
capped the rise so far, look to the day's $1.3277 low for initial support,
$1.3235-$1.3240 of more importance below.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recoveries Will Be Benign While Held Below Y109.37-Y109.47
*RES 4: Y110.14 61.8% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11
*RES 3: Y109.75/83 50% of Y111.40-Y108.11, May 25 high
*RES 2: Y109.37/47 38.2% Y111.40-Y108.11, recovery high May 28
*RES 1: Y109.11/23 Hourly recovery high May 29, May 28 low
*PRICE: Y108.71 @1630GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.35/40 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.02/11 50% Fibo Y104.63-Y111.40, May 29 low
*SUP 3: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support
*SUP 4: Y107.39 Equality fall from Y109.83 to Y111.40-Y108.96
*COMMENTARY* Suffered from the appearance of a 'shooting star' candle close on
the daily chart last Monday, which resulted in a break beneath key Y109.15
support last Thursday. Tuesday we lost further support from Y108.95, resulting
in a fall towards the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y108.02. Resistance now from
Y109.11-Y109.23, with Y109.47 key above. Support Y108.40-Y108.35 but lose
Y108.02 and Y107.67-Y107.39 possible.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Unable To Sustain Break Of Y127.61 Fibo Resistance 
*RES 4: Y128.53/54 May 25, May 28 highs
*RES 3: Y128.00 50% Fibo of 131.38-124.62
*RES 2: Y127.61/73 76.4% of Y128.54-Y124.62, intraday high
*RES 1: Y127.20/30 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y126.81 @1637GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.24/33 Hourly high/low May 30, intraday low
*SUP 2: Y125.70/80 2% volatility band, 61.8% Y124.62-Y127.73
*SUP 3: Y125.35 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y127.73
*SUP 4: Y124.62 May 29 low
*COMMENTARY* Has wasted no time in reclaiming ground back above the lower 2%
volatility band, at Y125.70 by time today. Latest rise to Y127.73 is unable as
yet to sustain a break above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y127.61. This would
be key as further correction potential would then switch to retracements of the
Y131.38-Y124.62 fall. Meanwhile, the subsequent pullback has lost support from
Y126.70-Y126.46, leaving Y126.24 to protect against a deeper corrective setback.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Virtually Reverses The Week's Previous Fall
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8841/42 1% volatility band, May 4 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8810 May 8 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8797 May 23 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8778 @1640GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8745/55 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8720 Initial recovery high May 29, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.8697 May 29 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8673/81 76.4% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842, Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* This week's Stg0.8795-Stg0.8697 fall has virtually been reversed
following the move back through Stg0.8775 resistance. Once again facing
potential problems from the Stg0.8795-Stg0.8797 area, as we again move back
towards the middle of the well established bear channel. Support now from
Stg0.8755-Stg0.8745 but it would require a loss of Stg0.8720 to renew downside
interest. Above Stg0.8797 and Stg0.8810 the next barrier higher.
AUSSIE TECHS: Once Again Fresh $0.7606-$0.7612 Challenge Is Put On Hold
*RES 4: $0.7649/60 4 month falling res, 61.8% $0.7813-$0.7412
*RES 3: $0.7631 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $0.7606/12 May 22 high, 50% of $0.7813-$0.7412
*RES 1: $0.7590/94 May 25, intraday highs
*PRICE: $0.7569 @1642GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7553 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $0.7525 Hourly congestion area May 29
*SUP 3: $0.7505 Initial recovery high May 30, now support
*SUP 4: $0.7476/80 May 29 low, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Following the small 'Doji' candle close last Tuesday we have seen a
fall from a high of $0.7606, which reached $0.7476 on Tuesday. This slightly
below the preferred $0.7488-$0.7485 support. The subsequent bounce has been
impressive breaking back through $0.7575. Now has the May 25 high at $0.7590 as
preventing another challenge to $0.7606-$0.7612. In the meantime,
$0.7553-$0.7525 provides support, $0.7505 more important below.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Recovers Well But Falters Below Pivotal $1.2994 Level
*RES 4: $1.3120/25 2 1/2 year falling res line, Mar 19 high
*RES 3: $1.3034/47 1% volatility band, May 29 high
*RES 2: $1.3020 Hourly recovery high May 30
*RES 1: $1.2994 Initial pullback low May 30, now rest'ce
*PRICE: $1.2961 @1650GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2925 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2895 Hourly recovery high May 30, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2859 Initial intraday recovery high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2818/26 Intraday low, May 23, 30 lows 
*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's $1.3047 rally took us towards the 2 1/2 year falling
resistance line, depending how you look at it. $1.3043 on the weekly chart,
$1.3048 on a daily basis and $1.3120 monthly wise. No doubting it was overbought
near term having tested the $1.3038 swing target and the upper 1% volatility
band. The subsequent decline has been swifter than anticipated, $1.2826-$1.2804
the next area of support. Back through $1.2915 has assisted, $1.2994 above.
GOLD TECHS: Recovery Still Has $1308.9-$1309.3 Resistance To Consider
*RES 4: $1332.8 Apr 13 low, Apr 24 high
*RES 3: $1326.0 May 11 high
*RES 2: $1314.9 May 15 high
*RES 1: $1308.9/9.3 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1301.8 @1654GMT
*SUP 1: $1292.0 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1287.8 May 23 low
*SUP 3: $1282.2 May 21 low
*SUP 4: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last week which
raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the
December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's
$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop
an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, once again trying to break through
the 8 week falling resistance line, so eyes still on $1308.9-$1314.9 resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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