MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Triangular Consolidation Currently Playing Out Here

*RES 4: $1.1910 1.618 swing of $1.1840-$1.1727, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 3: $1.1881 76.4% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1510

*RES 2: $1.1840/56 Jun 7 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.1810/21 Hourly resistance, Jun 11 high

*PRICE: $1.1784 @1525GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1741/55 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1727 Jun 8 low

*SUP 3: $1.1695 Hourly congestion Jun 4-Jun 5

*SUP 4: $1.1653 Jun 5 low

*COMMENTARY* A triangular consolidation currently playing out beneath

$1.1810-$1.1821 but still faces resistance from last Thursday's $1.1840 high and

the upper 1% volatility band at $1.1856. Above the former needed to remove the

bearish overtones from last Thursday's 'Shooting Star' candle close and allow a

higher $1.1881-$1.1910 rise. The latter also a 38.2% retrace of the year's

$1.2556-$1.1510 fall. Support from between $1.1755-$1.1741.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3425-$1.3443 The Bar To Further Near Term Recovery 

*RES 4: $1.3502/20 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3618-$1.3204

*RES 3: $1.3481/87 23.6% $1.4377-$1.3204, May 4 low

*RES 2: $1.3442/43 Jun 11, Jun 6 highs

*RES 1: $1.3415/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3401 @1530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3342/48 Intraday low, May 31 high

*SUP 2: $1.3333 Initial rally high Jun 5, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3295 Jun 1 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3254 Jun 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Rally was capped by the upper 1% volatility band last Thursday.

Some near term overbought conditions then in need of some correction and the

subsequent move back below $1.3390 raised concerns, as did the appearance of a

'Doji' candle at Thursday's close. Has found some support from between

$1.3348-$1.3333 but will need to move back through $1.3425-$1.3443 before the

belief in any recovery will become stronger.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:   Recovery Continues After Test To 50% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high

*RES 3: Y110.93/08 1.618 swing Y110.27-Y109.20, May 18 high

*RES 2: Y110.80 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y110.62 76.4% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11

*PRICE: Y110.18 @1534GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.85/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.50 Hourly congestion area Jun 8-11

*SUP 3: Y109.20 Jun 8 low, 50% of Y108.11-Y110.27

*SUP 4: Y109.08 May 30 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Following last Wednesday's rally to Y110.27, the subsequent

pullback aided by some overbought hourly conditions, came to rest at Y109.20, a

50% Fibo retrace of the preceding rally from Y108.11. The following recovery has

today moved back through Y110.05-Y110.27, clearance here allowing the chance of

a better Y110.62-Y110.80 rise next. Support rises to Y109.95-Y109.85 but Y109.50

still protects the downside from another inquisition.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Thursday's Y130.28 High Back In Sight As Recovery Continues

*RES 4: Y131.38 May 14 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y131.14 5 month falling resistance line

*RES 2: Y131.06 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y124.62 

*RES 1: Y130.28 Jun 7 high

*PRICE: Y129.94 @1538GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.43/51 Hourly support, intraday low

*SUP 2: Y128.94/95 Previous highs Jun 8, now support

*SUP 3: Y128.60 Hourly base Jun 8

*SUP 4: Y128.11/12 Jun 8 low, 38.2% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.28

*COMMENTARY* Friday's pullback halted by the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at

Y128.12. The following recovery back through Y129.75 encourages and today is

again challenging last Thursday's Y130.28 high. A clear break through here does

not see much resistance until the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y131.06 and the 5

month resistance line at Y131.14, on a weekly basis. Support Y129.51-Y129.43 but

Y128.94 still more important below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Falters Again Below Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842 Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8864 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8832 Intraday high

*RES 1: Stg0.8815/20 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8795 @1543GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8775/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8750/59 Initial rally high Jun 5, Jun 8 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8724/26 Jun 5, Jun 1 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Found the ability to move through Stg0.8810 last Thursday but has

once again faltered on the approach to the next resistance of note between

Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. The subsequent pullback from there has been relatively

swift, with Stg0.8790-Stg0.8780 giving way and allowing a dip to Stg0.8759,

within the more familiar range above the recent Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724 lows. Near

term Stg0.8785-Stg0.8775 provides support and Stg0.8815-20 resistance.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7650 The Near Term Bar To Fresh Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: $0.7689 38.2% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7412, 1% vol band

*RES 3: $0.7673/77 Base broken bull channel, Jun 6 high

*RES 2: $0.7650 76.4% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7561

*RES 1: $0.7629/33 Hourly high Jun 7, 61.8% of $0.7677-$0.7561

*PRICE: $0.7605 @1548GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7575/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7553/61 May 31, Jun 8 lows

*SUP 3: $0.7523/32 76.4% $0.7476-$0.7677, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7514 Jun 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Unable to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band

and the base of the previously broken 30 month support line last week. Squeezed

a high of $0.7677 on Thursday but the resultant fall has been swift moving back

below $0.7615-$0.7594 support. Now looking to $0.7561-$0.7553 for next

directional clues. Nearest resistance $0.7629-$0.7633 but back above $0.7650

would improve recovery hopes again.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Becalmed For The While Above Pivotal $1.2901 Support

*RES 4: $1.3125 Mar 19 high

*RES 3: $1.3084 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3064/67 2 1/2 year falling res line, Jun 5 high

*RES 1: $1.3028/42 Jun 11, Jun 8 highs

*PRICE: $1.2983 @1554GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2950/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2922 Jun 8 low

*SUP 3: $1.2901 Initial recovery high Jun 6, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2858/61 Jun 6 low, 38.2% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.3067

*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3067 last Tuesday, basically a test to the 2 1/2 year

resistance line. Subsequently fell foul of some overbought conditions and have

seen a decent pullback, which found support from $1.2858 on Wednesday, just

below the 38.2% Fibo support at $1.2861. The following rally corrects that drop,

some near term exuberance above the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3018 has seen a

$1.3042 rise. Support $1.2955-$1.2922 but only beneath $1.2901 will caution.

GOLD TECHS: $1303.5-$1307.9 Still Providing Near Term Resistance

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1307.9 May 25 high

*RES 1: $1303.5 Jun 7 high

*PRICE: $1298.1 @1555GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 3: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1266.3 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1307.9

*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month

which raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, still having trouble with

$1303.5-$1307.9 resistance, so eyes back on $1287.8-$1282.2 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]