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Trend Condition Remains Bearish

By Les Castell
     
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pullback Potential After $1.1721-$1.1730 Caps Rise
*RES 4: $1.1771 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508
*RES 3: $1.1738 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.1721/30 61.8% $1.1852-$1.1508,swing $1.1645-$1.1508
*RES 1: $1.1675/85 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1646 @0825GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1628 Jun 25 low
*SUP 2: $1.1590/00 Hourly support, Jun 20 high
*SUP 3: $1.1555/60 Congestion area Jun 19-21
*SUP 4: $1.1505/08 1% volatility band, Jun 21 low
*COMMENTARY* The rally finally made it to the base of the next $1.1721-$1.1730
resistance area, before hitting on some overbought hourly conditions. The
subsequent setback is losing $1.1650 support, which if sustained will put
further gains on hold for the while. Any lower would bring $1.1628-$1.1590 back
into the equation, where next questions are asked of direction. Earlier
resistance evident from $1.1675-$1.1685 but $1.1721-$1.1738 still tough higher.
     
CABLE TECHS: Pullback Has $1.3180-$1.3145 Support In Mind
*RES 4: $1.3365 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.3315/31 Jun 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.3473-$1.3102
*RES 2: $1.3292 Jun 26 high
*RES 1: $1.3240/50 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3197 @0840GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3180/85 Congestion area Jun 19-20
*SUP 2: $1.3145/51 Jun 20, Jun 19 lows
*SUP 3: $1.3102/07 1% vol, Jun 21 low, 50% $1.1838-$1.4377
*SUP 4: $1.3056 7 week bear channel base projection
*COMMENTARY* A high of $1.3315 has been the zenith of the recovery so far, just
below the 61.8% retrace level at $1.3331, as we reach near term overbought
conditions. The subsequent setback is now chipping away at support, with $1.3207
gone, $1.3185-$1.3180 is the protection to the slightly stronger $1.3151-$1.3145
area. Loss of the latter would put $1.3102 back in trouble. Resistance
$1.3240-$1.3250 and then the familiar $1.3292.
     
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.22 Again The Barrier To Recovery Efforts
*RES 4: Y110.76 Jun 21 high
*RES 3: Y110.45 Jun 20 high
*RES 2: Y110.22 Jun 22, Jun 26 highs
*RES 1: Y110.00/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.78 @0847GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.37/55 Jun 25 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low
*SUP 3: Y108.77/80 76.4% Y108.11-Y110.91,swing Y109.55-Y110.76
*SUP 4: Y108.11 May 29 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable to improve on the Y110.91 high seen on Jun 15 and has
gradually been paying the price since. Monday's break below Y109.80-Y109.55 has
found support from Y109.37, protecting against a further Y109.20-Y109.04 fall,
the latter the lower 1% vol band, as gains from the May 29 low at Y108.11 begin
to unwind. Yesterday Y110.22 again provided resistance to a higher
Y110.45-Y110.76 rise. Below Y109.04 and Y108.80-Y108.77 becomes important.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Retreats After Test Toward 61.8% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: Y129.25/48 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of Y130.36-Y124.62 
*RES 3: Y128.85/94 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y130.36-Y124.62
*RES 2: Y128.38/46 Hourly high & daily high Jun 26
*RES 1: Y127.95/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y127.60 @0900GMT
*SUP 1: Y127.28 Jun 25 low
*SUP 2: Y126.99/09 Jun 21, Jun 20 lows
*SUP 3: Y126.64 Jun 19 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.36
*COMMENTARY* This week saw another attempt to reach the 61.8% Fibo retrace level
at Y128.94, attaining a high of Y128.85 before retreating on the back of some
overbought hourly conditions. In this respect, support from Y127.65 is under
assault today, leaving Monday's Y127.28 base as protection below. Main support
however is located between Y127.09-Y126.99. Loss would put Y126.64 back under
pressure. Resistance Y127.95-Y128.46 and then that Y128.94.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Attempting Challenge To Recent Consolidation Highs
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8865 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs
*RES 1: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8814 @0912GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8790/00 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8760 Congestion area Jun 18-22
*SUP 3: Stg0.8745 Hourly basing area Jun 15-18
*SUP 4: Stg0.8717/26 Jun 15, Jun 21 lows
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to chip away at recent highs around Stg0.8823 in an
effort to once again reach and attempt to break, the Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area,
which has capped rallies over the last couple of months. Daily studies remain
supportive, so while Stg0.8800-Stg0.8790 support holds, there is the chance for
another challenge. Loss of Stg0.8790 would take the sting out of the recent
rally and once again point to a pullback within the range.
     
AUSSIE TECHS: Downside Back Under Pressure As $0.7370 Support Wavers
*RES 4: $0.7476/81 May 29 low, Jun 15 high
*RES 3: $0.7457 Jun 22 high
*RES 2: $0.7438 Hourly recovery high Jun 25
*RES 1: $0.7400/10 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7374 @0923GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7362/70 Intraday low, initial rally high Jun 21
*SUP 2: $0.7345 Jun 21 low
*SUP 3: $0.7327/33 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136, May 9 2017 low
*SUP 4: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7345-$0.7457
*COMMENTARY* Last week's dips to firstly $0.7347 and then $0.7345, had a duel
with the lower 2% volatility band, which managed to control the fall. The
following recovery on the back of heavily oversold studies reached $0.7457,
before again giving back some ground. Support from $0.7380-$0.7370, is under
challenge, sustained move below the latter would concern again. Resistance
meanwhile falls to $0.7400-$0.7438.
     
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Halted At Edge Of $1.3385-$1.3404 Resistance
*RES 4: $1.3462 1.618 swing of $1.3385-$1.3261
*RES 3: $1.3404 Equality rise from $1.2528 to $1.2249-$1.3125
*RES 2: $1.3385 76.4% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061, Jun 22 high
*RES 1: $1.3340/55 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3316 @0927GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3261 Jun 22 low
*SUP 2: $1.3210 Jun 15 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.3159 Jun 18 low
*SUP 4: $1.3114 Jun 15 low
*COMMENTARY* The hold of key $1.2950 support this month has continued to produce
a significant recovery, which has broken above the top of the 9 month bull
channel and also the Jun 2017 high at $1.3348. It has however found the 76.4%
Fibo retrace level at $1.3385 a significant barrier. This and the equality rise
target at $1.3404 are the primary contenders to put a halt to this rise, at
least for the time being. Support from 1.3261, loss here would caution.
     
GOLD TECHS: Decline Continues, $1249.3 Now Protects Against $1236.6 Return 
*RES 4: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1272.7 Jun 22 high
*RES 1: $1266.7 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1257.12 @0934GMT
*SUP 1: $1249.3 3 month bear channel base projection
*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low
*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2
*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which
raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the December
2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise.
Below and we have now seen a further $1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In fact this has now
been exceeded and risk is for a test to the 3 month channel base at $1249.3
next. Resistance $1266.7-$1272.7 but $1282.2 remains more important higher.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]