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MNI UST Issuance: Aug 2024 Refunding Review

Treasury's August refunding round saw cautiously positive market reaction, with no changes to coupon auction sizes or future issuance guidance.

HomepageGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - USGlobal Issuance - Deep DiveMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

August Refunding Review: Upsizing To Wait

Key takeaways from August’s quarterly Treasury Refunding process (July 29-July 31):

  • Coupon auction sizes left unchanged, TIPS upped slightly – all as expected
  • No change in guidance that sizes aren’t expected to increase “for at least the next several quarters”
  • Cash management buybacks to debut in September
  • Advisory committee makes notable shift in recommended bill proportion of total marketable debt
  • Treasury is playing it “down the middle” with cash balances ahead of potential debt ceiling issues in Jan 2025
  • Market response was cautiously positive, with some bull flattening in the Treasury curve
  • MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations, and reactions from sell-side analysts

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_RefundingReviewAug2024.pdf



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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

August Refunding Review: Upsizing To Wait

Key takeaways from August’s quarterly Treasury Refunding process (July 29-July 31):

  • Coupon auction sizes left unchanged, TIPS upped slightly – all as expected
  • No change in guidance that sizes aren’t expected to increase “for at least the next several quarters”
  • Cash management buybacks to debut in September
  • Advisory committee makes notable shift in recommended bill proportion of total marketable debt
  • Treasury is playing it “down the middle” with cash balances ahead of potential debt ceiling issues in Jan 2025
  • Market response was cautiously positive, with some bull flattening in the Treasury curve
  • MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations, and reactions from sell-side analysts

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_RefundingReviewAug2024.pdf