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UK: MNI's data team see UK headline earnings hitting 3.0% in October, in figures
due in just over 15 minutes' time: Earnings Set to Surpass 3%-mark Despite Bonus
Base Effect. Key points include:
-Analysts Look to Extend Good Regular Earnings Run. For the past three years
analysts have correctly called ex-bonus earnings growth in September, holding a
one-in-two success rate over the past eight years. They overestimated regular
earnings three times (average data surprise: -0.17pp) and underestimated it once
(data surprise: +0.1pp).
-Public Earnings Growth Catching Up. The spread between private and public total
earnings growth closed in August, with the neutral difference the lowest since
April 2014 and equal to the 2002-to-current-day average.
-Analysts' Decent Jobless Rate Track Record. In seven of the last 16 years,
analysts have successfully called the UK unemployment rate, including last year.
-MPC Due to Update its Labour Market Assessment. Record high vacancies, a
multi-decade low jobless rate (foreseen slipping to 3.9% before the year-end,
significantly below their estimate neutral rate of 4.25%).